AP Decision Notes: What to expect in New Jersey’s state primary

WASHINGTON (AP) - New Jersey voters will nominate candidates for both chambers of Congress in a state primary on Tuesday, including in one key battleground district that could decide control of the U.S. House.

Republicans hold a narrow House majority but face a tough midterm environment in which the party holding the White House typically loses congressional seats. Although Republicans may see gains from mid-decade redistricting in several states and from a recent U.S. Supreme Court ruling threatening Democratic-held majority-Black districts across the South, winning competitive seats like New Jersey's 7th Congressional District remains central to both parties' strategies to hold or retake the chamber.

U.S. Rep. Tom Kean Jr. is running for a third term in the 7th District and is unopposed for the Republican nomination. His father, Thomas Kean Sr., served two terms as New Jersey's Republican governor in the 1980s.

He will face the winner of a competitive Democratic primary featuring former healthcare executive Rebecca Bennett, former Small Business Administration official Michael Roth, physician Tina Shah and entrepreneur and business owner Brian Varela. Bennett leads the Democratic field in fundraising and had the most campaign funds available heading into the final stretch of the campaign.

Kean's whereabouts have been a question on the campaign trail and in the halls of Congress. On April 27, he released a statement saying that he was addressing "a personal medical issue" and that he expected to return "very soon." As of Monday, he had not voted on any legislation since March 5, missing more than 100 consecutive votes.

The 7th Congressional District in northern New Jersey stretches from Staten Island to the Pennsylvania border. Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump narrowly carried the district in 2024, edging Democratic nominee Kamala Harris, 49.6% to 48.5%.

Also on the ballot is U.S. Sen. Cory Booker, who faces no primary opposition in his bid for a third full term. The Republicans hoping to challenge him in November are physician Robert Lebovics, former Tabernacle Deputy Mayor Justin Murphy, Army veteran and former state trooper Richard Tabor and former local TV news reporter Alex Zdan.

Bergen and Middlesex counties in the greater New York City area are among the most populous in the state and are important battlegrounds in both Democratic and Republican statewide primaries. Essex County, which is home to Newark, is also a major population center, but its heavily Democratic electorate makes it less influential in Republican primaries. The counties that contribute the most votes in statewide Republican primaries tend to be Ocean, Monmouth and Morris.

Union County comprises the largest share of the 7th Congressional District vote, followed by Somerset and Hunterdon counties.

Here are some of the key facts about the election and data points the AP Decision Team will monitor as the votes are tallied:

Polls close at 8 p.m. ET.

The Associated Press will provide vote results and declare winners in contested primaries for U.S. Senate and U.S. House.

Registered party members may vote only in their own party's primary. In other words, Democrats can't vote in the Republican primary or vice versa. Independent or unaffiliated voters may participate in either primary, but voting in a party's primary will enroll them in that party.

As of May 1, there were about 6.7 million registered voters in New Jersey, including about 2.5 million registered Democrats, about 1.7 million registered Republicans and about 2.4 million voters not affiliated with any party.

About 841,000 Democratic primary votes and about 466,000 Republican primary votes were cast in the 2025 gubernatorial primary. That was higher than the turnout for the 2024 U.S. Senate primaries, when about 525,000 and 318,000 votes were cast in the Democratic and Republican primaries, respectively.

About 46% of the Democratic primary vote and about 31% of the Republican primary vote in the 2025 gubernatorial primaries was cast before primary day.

As of Wednesday, about 285,000 ballots had already been cast in Tuesday's election, about 79% from Democrats and about 20% from Republicans.

Counties in New Jersey typically release results from mail and in-person early voting before releasing results from in-person Election Day voting. Counties tend to release all or almost all of their mail and early voting results in the first vote report of the night, before any in-person Election Day results are released.

In the 2025 gubernatorial primaries, the AP first reported results at 8:03 p.m. ET, or three minutes after polls closed. The last vote update of the night was at 11:43 p.m. ET, with about 93% of total votes counted.

The AP does not make projections and will declare a winner only when it's determined there is no scenario that would allow a trailing candidate to close the gap. If a race has not been called, the AP will continue to cover any newsworthy developments, such as candidate concessions or declarations of victory. In doing so, the AP will make clear that it has not yet declared a winner and explain why.

Recounts are rare in New Jersey. The state does not have automatic recounts, but candidates and voters may request and pay for them, with the cost refunded if the outcome changes. The AP may declare a winner in a race that is subject to a recount if it can determine the lead is too large for a recount or legal challenge to change the outcome.

As of Tuesday, there will be 154 days until the 2026 midterm elections.