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One Nation has gained one to three points in all five federal post-budget polls. The YouGov and Morgan polls agree with the Resolve poll in having Labor down, but retaining a clear lead. Analyst Kevin Bonham gives Labor a 52.4-47.6 lead against the Coalition, a 0.8-point gain for the Coalition since the budget.
Further post‑budget polls have Labor down, but retaining a clear lead
One Nation has gained one to three points in all five federal post-budget polls. The YouGov and Morgan polls agree with the Resolve poll in having Labor down, but retaining a clear lead.
Analyst Kevin Bonham gives Labor a 52.4-47.6 lead against the Coalition, a 0.8-point gain for the Coalition since the budget. He gives Labor a 52.9-47.1 lead against One Nation, a 0.6-point gain for One Nation.
This article also includes state polls from New South Wales and Tasmania. The NSW election is in March 2027.
A national YouGov poll for Sky News, conducted May 12-19 from a sample presumably of 1,500, gave Labor 28% of the primary vote (down two since the previous YouGov poll in late April to early May), One Nation 25% (up one), the Coalition 23% (up two), the Greens 13% (down one), independents 5% (steady) and others 6% (steady).
By respondent preferences, Labor led the Coalition by 52-48, a two-point gain for the Coalition. Labor led One Nation by 53-47, a four-point gain for One Nation. In the last three YouGov polls, Labor has led One Nation by 52-48, 57-43 and now 53-47.
Anthony Albanese's net approval was down five points to -19. Albanese led Angus Taylor as better PM by 41-38 (45-36 previously). He led Pauline Hanson by 50-38 (54-35 previously).
By 44-9, respondents said the budget would make them worse off rather than better off. By 38-31, they did not think "Labor's broken promises" would ease the housing crisis for first home buyers. On immigration, by 62-10 respondents wanted a decrease rather than an increase.
Morgan poll
A national Morgan poll, conducted May 11-17 from a sample of 1,668, gave Labor 29.5% of the primary vote (down one since the May 4-10 Morgan poll), One Nation 24.5% (up 2.5), the Coalition 24% (down one), the Greens 11.5% (steady) and all Others 10.5% (down 0.5).
By respondent preferences, Labor led the Coalition by 54-46, a 0.5-point gain for Labor. By 2025 election preference flows, Labor led by an unchanged 52.5-47.5. This is the regular weekly Morgan poll, not the SMS post-budget Morgan poll that had One Nation on 32%.
Additional Resolve questions
In additional questions from the post-budget Resolve poll for Nine newspapers, by 35-24 the budget was rated bad for "me and my household" and by 32-30 bad for the country as a whole, while respondents were split 31-31 on its effect on the health of the economy.
These ratings are far better than in Newspoll, where the budget was at -25 on its economic impact and -41 on its personal impact. By 31-27, respondents in Resolve thought the budget was good for younger people, but it was thought bad for older people by 37-25 and bad for the less fortunate and disadvantaged by 37-26.
The Liberals led Labor on party best for economic management by 33-23 (34-27 in April). On keeping the cost of living low, the Liberals led Labor by 27-24 (31-25 previously).
NSW Resolve poll has Labor up from low
The New South Wales state election is in March 2027. A Resolve poll for The Sydney Morning Herald, conducted May 13-16 from a sample of 1,100, gave Labor 32% of the primary vote (up three since the March Resolve poll), the Coalition 26% (up one), One Nation 22% (down one), the Greens 10% (steady), independents 6% (down two) and others 4% (down one).
Labor's primary vote in March of 29% had been tied for its worst result this term from Resolve, matching the February 2025 poll.
Resolve doesn't usually give a two-party estimate for its state polls. NSW uses optional preferential voting and this will assist Labor owing to the split in right-wing votes between the Coalition and One Nation.
Labor incumbent Chris Minns led Liberal leader Kellie Sloane as preferred premier by 38-18 (38-17 in March).
Tasmanian EMRS poll has Liberals down and One Nation up
A Tasmanian state EMRS poll, conducted May 11-13 from a sample of 1,000, gave the Liberals 25% of the vote (down four since the February EMRS poll), Labor 24% (up one), One Nation 19% (up five), the Greens 14% (down one), independents 16% (up one) and others 1% (down two). Tasmania uses a proportional system for its lower house, so a two-party estimate is not applicable.
Liberal Premier Jeremy Rockliff's net favourability was up three points to +4 (38% favourable, 34% unfavourable), Labor leader Josh Willie's was steady at -4 (21% unfavourable, 17% favourable) and Greens leader Rosalie Woodruff's was up one point to -5 (28% unfavourable, 23% favourable). Rockliff led Willie as preferred premier by 44-25 (previously 40-26).
TheConversation.com
Author: Adrian Beaumont - Election Analyst (Psephologist) at The Conversation; and Honorary Associate, School of Mathematics and Statistics, The University of Melbourne
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