Italy’s Meloni to leverage strong ties with Trump – but as president whisperer or Trojan horse?

ROME (AP) - After forging unexpectedly fond ties with U.S. President Joe Biden, Italy's right-wing Premier Giorgia Meloni is poised to leverage a more natural alliance with U.S. President-elect Donald Trump that positions her as a key interlocutor between the U.S. and Europe.

Weeks before his inauguration, Meloni met Trump at his Mar-a-Lago retreat, a visit that she said went "beyond expectations." The trip, she said, “was an opportunity to confirm a relationship that promises to be very solid,'' adding diplomatically, "I don't know if I can say privileged."

A strong trans-Atlantic relationship between two conservative governments creates "an added value, not only for Italy but for Europe as a whole,'' she told journalists this month.

It remains to be seen to whose advantage the relationship will be, with some observers saying that Meloni could either become a Trump whisperer, exerting influence, or a Trojan horse in Europe - for Trump's purposes.

"It's clear that if Trump is looking for a person to call in Europe when in need, Meloni is the one," said Franco Pavoncello, political science professor and president of Rome's John Cabot University. "Around her in Europe, it’s a desert."

Known for its rotating governments that rarely complete full parliamentary terms, Italy is in the unusual position of being the most stable government among major European and G-7 allies, as Germany, France and even Canada struggle.

Meloni has led her once-fringe, post-fascist party from the extreme right to more mainstream positions, especially on foreign policy. She gained ground as a leading political figure in Europe after her far-right Brothers of Italy party scored a sound performance in the EU election last June.

The 48-year-old Italian leader made the trip to Florida as her government was working to win the release from Iran of an Italian journalist who was arrested in mid-December. Within days of her return, the journalist, Cecilia Sala, was released in what Meloni described as "diplomatic triangulation" between the U.S., Italy and Iran. Four days later, Italy freed an Iranian citizen held on a U.S. warrant.

While Meloni denied any direct Trump involvement in the deal, her defense minister said the images of Meloni standing alongside him reinforced her "credibility" at a critical juncture.

On ideological grounds, Meloni is a natural ally for the incoming U.S. president. She has taken on migration, seeking deals with African nations to discourage departures and is determined to vet male asylum seekers at two centers Italy built in Albania. Her government also has adopted conservative family policies, including a ban on surrogacy and has taken action meant to curb abortions.

The personal chemistry between Trump and Meloni is also evident and reinforces her chances to become his go-to leader in Europe. The two were seen locked in discussions during celebrations for the reopening of Paris’ Notre Dame Cathedral on Dec. 7, when they set in motion the Mar-a-Lago visit. Meloni also has a well-documented friendship with key Trump adviser, Elon Musk.

The Italian prime minister is one of just a handful of world leaders who will likely attend Trump's inauguration ceremony on Jan. 20, confirming the strong ties with the U.S. administration.

More surprising was Meloni's strong relationship with Biden, who initially viewed Meloni's rise to power as a harbinger of a rightward shift in global politics. But Biden's concerns about her ideology were eased by her support for Ukraine in its effort to repel Russia's grinding invasion and her openness to pulling back from Italy's participation in China's infrastructure-building Belt and Road Initiative.

The two met at least twice in Washington, highly unusual for an Italian leader in just two years in office. Biden had even planned to make his last overseas trip as president this month to Italy. That trip, however, was scrapped at the last minute so Biden could stay in Washington to oversee the federal response to wildfires devastating Los Angeles.

Instead, Biden and Meloni spoke by phone last Friday. The White House said Biden expressed his appreciation to Meloni for Italy's support for Ukraine as well as the country's leadership at the G7, NATO and European Union.

Meloni's pro-Atlantic position, which secured her ties with Biden, may prove a challenge to a Trump relationship. Trump is pushing NATO allies to increase their spending to 5% of national output, with Italy one of just eight members that falls below the 2% defense spending target.

"On Ukraine, the Trump administration will try to find a way to dialogue with Russia to reach a solution and will likely ask Europe to do more," said Mario Del Pero, expert of transatlantic relations and professor of international history at SciencesPo in Paris. "That will put Italy in a tough spot."

Meloni has already been forced to comment on Trump's recent expansionist rhetoric, telling reporters that his comments about annexing Greenland, Canada and Panama were meant as a deterrent, a "forceful message to other big global players rather than a hostile action."

Italy's economy would also be challenged by Trump's pledge of tariffs on exports, which at 10% could cost Italy’s export-driven economy up to $7 billion, according to a study by the Prometeia risk analysis firm. Italy has a trade surplus of 42 billion euros with the United States, its second export partner after Germany.

The bottom line, according to analysts, is that Meloni remains a true nationalist, who will protect Italian interests before all else.

That could turn in Europe's favor, for example in the case of trade tariff wars or defense spending clashes. But it may prove disruptive for European unity in the long term.

Already a reported deal with Musk’s SpaceX to provide communications through the Starlink technology to Italian institutions threatens to undermine the Iris2 orbital constellation of 290 satellites led by a European consortium that includes Italian defense contractor Leonardo.

"It's naive to imagine that she'll be able to defend EU interests, while she will more likely act as a Trojan horse for Trump into Europe," said Nathalie Tocci, director of Rome-based Institute of International Affairs. "When she faces tough choices, the euro-skeptic way is where she always ends up going, because it's where her heart truly beats."

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Aamer Madhani in Washington, D.C. contributed.