Greens may be a problem for Labor in Tasmanian no-confidence vote

The Liberals won 14 of the 35 lower house seats at the July 19 Tasmanian state election, Labor ten, the Greens five, independents five and the Shooters, Fishers and Farmers one.

Liberal Jeremy Rockliff was the premier before this election, and he was reappointed on August 6 pending next Tuesday's sitting of the Tasmanian parliament. Labor will move a vote of no-confidence when parliament sits. If this motion succeeds and a motion of confidence is then passed in Labor, Labor will govern Tasmania for the first time since 2014.

On Tuesday, Greens leader Rosalie Woodruff said the Greens would not support Labor in the confidence vote "at this stage", saying Labor leader Dean Winter had not shown any intention to compromise on issues the Greens said they'd fight for.

To get a majority, 18 votes are required. Analyst Kevin Bonham said the Greens have ruled out abstaining on the no-confidence motion. If Labor can't win over the Greens, the Liberals will retain government as the 14 Liberals and five Greens add to 19 votes.

To win government, Labor will need support from the Greens and at least three of the six others. I wrote on August 4 that, with five of the six others being left-leaning, it was easier for Labor to form government than the Liberals.

None of the six others have firmly committed to backing either Labor or the Liberals in the no-confidence motion. After the election, the Liberals proposed phasing out greyhound racing. According to Bonham, this has not pleased the one Shooter, who says he won't support the Liberals unless they reverse this policy.

Labor was last in power in Tasmania from 1998 to 2014, governing in majority from 1998 to 2010 and with the Greens from 2010 to 2014. The Liberals heavily defeated Labor at the 2014 election, and Labor has been reluctant to deal with the Greens since.

Labor probably hopes that the Greens are bluffing, and that they will reluctantly back Labor in the no-confidence motion rather than prop up the Liberals. At the 2025 federal election, nearly 90% of Tasmanian Greens' preferences went to Labor over the Coalition. If the Tasmanian Liberals retained government on Greens votes, the Greens' supporters may be angry.

Federally and in most mainland states, single-member systems are used for lower house elections and proportional systems for upper house elections (Queensland has no upper house), but Tasmania uses a proportional system for its lower house elections.

At this election, the Liberals defeated Labor by 40-26 on statewide vote shares. Although Labor can take power with support from the Greens and left-leaning independents, I believe Labor needs to negotiate more with them and possibly make deals to get a workable government that can last a significant portion of a four-year term.

NSW: MP resigns ahead of expulsion vote

Gareth Ward was the New South Wales state Liberal MP for Kiama from 2011 to 2019. At the 2023 state election, he retained Kiama as an independent despite allegations of sexual assault on two young men. Ward was convicted of these allegations by a jury in July and he resigned on August 8 ahead of an expulsion motion that was certain to succeed.

Labor expects to contest the ensuing September 13 byelection in Kiama. ABC election analyst Antony Green said at the 2023 election, Ward defeated Labor by 50.8-49.2 from primary votes of 38.8% Ward, 34.4% Labor, 12.0% Liberals and 11.1% Greens. On upper house votes in that seat, Labor would have beaten the Liberals, so Labor is the favourite to win the byelection.

Labor won 45 of the 93 NSW lower house seats at the March 2023 election, two short of a majority. It was able to form a minority government. A win in Kiama would put Labor just one seat short of majority.

Federal polls

A national Wolf+Smith poll for The Financial Review, conducted July 18-30 from a sample of 5,000, gave Labor a 57-43 lead, from primary votes of 36% Labor and 30% Coalition with no other party's primary vote given.

Albanese led Ley as preferred PM by 45-35. By 47-18, respondents opposed increasing the GST rate or broadening the GST base. On income tax cuts, 56% thought they should be paid for by higher company taxes.

A national DemosAU poll, conducted July 31 from a sample of 1,079, had 45% supporting Australia formally recognising a Palestinian state with 23% opposed (35-22 support in May 2024).

US gerrymandering

I wrote for The Poll Bludger last Saturday about attempts by Republicans to grab five extra United States federal House of Representatives seats by gerrymandering Texas, and about retaliatory attempts by Democrats to gerrymander California. I also covered Donald Trump's US ratings and the July 20 Japanese upper house election.

TheConversation.com

Author: Adrian Beaumont – Election Analyst (Psephologist) at The Conversation; and Honorary Associate, School of Mathematics and Statistics, The University of Melbourne

https://theconversation.com/greens-may-be-a-problem-for-labor-in-next-weeks-tasmanian-no-confidence-vote-262869