A South Australian Newspoll has given the Liberals just 14% of the primary vote, four weeks before the state election. And in a Victoria Morgan poll, One Nation has topped both Labor and the Coalition on primary votes, with 26.5%, compared to 25.5% for Labor and 21.5% for the Coalition. Labor leads both One Nation and the Coalition after preferences in the poll.
A South Australian Newspoll has given the Liberals just 14% of the primary vote, four weeks before the state election.
And in a Victoria Morgan poll, One Nation has topped both Labor and the Coalition on primary votes, with 26.5%, compared to 25.5% for Labor and 21.5% for the Coalition. Labor leads both One Nation and the Coalition after preferences in the poll.
A separate Victoria Resolve poll has One Nation at only 11%.
The SA state election is on March 21. A Newspoll, conducted February 11-17 from a sample of 1,057 people, gave Labor 44% of the primary vote, One Nation 24%, the Liberals just 14%, the Greens 12% and all others 6%.
With One Nation second on primary votes, no Labor vs Liberal two-party estimate was provided.
After the previous SA Fox & Hedgehog poll that had primary votes of 40% Labor, 20% One Nation and 19% Liberals, I said there was some chance of the Liberals winning zero of 47 lower house seats.
If the Newspoll figures are correct, it's likely the Liberals will be wiped out of the SA lower house at the election, with One Nation winning the very few conservative seats.
Labor Premier Peter Malinauskas had a +40 net approval rating, with 67% of respondents satisfied with his job performance and 27% dissatisfied. Liberal leader Ashton Hurn was at +4 net approval (39% satisfied, 35% dissatisfied). Malinauskas led Hurn as better premier by 67-19%.
A SA YouGov poll for The Advertiser, conducted February 6-17 from a sample of 1,217 people, gave Labor 37% of the primary vote, One Nation 22%, the Liberals 20%, the Greens 13% and all others 8%.
On respondent preferences, Labor led One Nation by 60-40% and the Liberals by 59-41%.
Malinauskas' net approval was +36 (64% satisfied, 28% dissatisfied). Hurn's net approval was +7 (40% satisfied, 33% dissatisfied). Malinauskas led Hurn as better premier by 64-20%.
And 52% of respondents thought the Malinauskas government deserved to be re-elected, compared to 24% who didn't.
The Victorian election is in late November. A Morgan SMS poll, conducted February 13-16 from a sample of 2,462 people, gave One Nation 26.5% of the primary vote, Labor 25.5%, the Coalition 21.5%, the Greens 13.5% and all others 13%.
On a "three-party preferred", which distributes respondent preferences from Greens and Others between Labor, One Nation and the Coalition, Labor had 44.5%, One Nation 29.5% and the Coalition 26%. Labor led the Coalition by 52-48 and One Nation by 52.5-47.5 in two-party head to head matchups.
Even though One Nation is first on primary votes in this poll, Labor leads both right-wing parties after preferences. If the election reflected the overall votes and preferences in this poll, Labor would probably be returned to government. But there's still over nine months until the election.
SMS polls may be prone to attracting too many motivated voters. Other methods of polling are not so prone to this. Many people just don't care about politics.
An early February DemosAU poll had the Coalition leading Labor by 53-47 from primary votes of 29% Coalition, 23% Labor, 21% One Nation and 15% Greens. However, the Resolve poll below gave One Nation just 11%, although this poll was taken in two waves (January and February).
Labor Premier Jacinta Allan's net approval in the Morgan poll was -37, with 67.5% disapproving and 30.5% approving. Liberal leader Jess Wilson's net approval was +10.5. Wilson led Allan as preferred premier by 51-42.5.
A Victorian state Resolve poll for The Age, conducted with the federal January and February Resolve polls from a sample of 1,100, gave the Coalition 30% of the primary vote (down nine since the December Resolve poll), Labor 28% (steady), the Greens 12% (steady), One Nation 11% (not asked for previously), independents 7% (down two) and others 11% (steady).
No two-party estimate was reported, but The Poll Bludger estimated a 51-49 Labor lead over the Coalition. This poll is much worse for One Nation than the Morgan or DemosAU polls,
Despite relatively good voting intentions for Labor, Allan's net likeability slumped 20 points to -37, only four points higher than Donald Trump's net likeability in Australia. Wilson's net likeability was steady at +14. Wilson led Allan as preferred premier by 39-20 (41-24 previously).
All three recent Victorian polls agree that Allan's ratings are dismal. As voters focus on state issues in the lead-up to the election, Allan's unpopularity is likely to drag Labor's vote down.
A Queensland state Resolve poll for The Brisbane Times, conducted with the federal January and February Resolve polls from a sample of 868, gave the Liberal National Party (LNP) 34% of the primary vote (up one since December), Labor 26% (down four), One Nation 16% (up seven), the Greens 10% (down one), independents 9% (up one) and others 5% (down five).
After the LNP won the October 2024 election, Labor had been competitive in this poll from August until December 2025. However, the LNP has regained a big lead, with analyst Kevin Bonham estimating a 54.6-45.4 LNP lead over Labor after preferences.
LNP Premier David Crisafulli's net likeability surged five points to a new high of +21, while Labor leader Steven Miles was down eight points to -3. Crisafulli led Miles as preferred premier by 44-23 (35-34 previously).
A national Morgan poll, conducted February 13-16 (in the days following the federal Liberal leadership spill) from a sample of just 526, gave Labor 32% of the primary vote (up 1.5 since the February 9-13 pre-spill Morgan poll), the Coalition 23.5% (up 3.5), One Nation 21.5% (down 3.5), the Greens 12.5% (down 0.5) and all Others 10.5% (down one).
Labor led the Coalition by 55-45 on respondent preferences, a 3.5-point gain for the Coalition from an unusually strong flow to Labor in the pre-spill poll. By 2025 election flows, Labor would have led by about 54.5-45.5, a 0.5-point gain for the Coalition.
I previously covered the national Resolve poll for Nine newspapers. In further questions, by 50-11 respondents supported income tax cuts.
Asked about ways to fund the tax cuts, by 66-8 respondents agreed with reducing spending, by 58-12 increasing taxation on banks, by 57-13 increasing taxation on mining companies, by 46-17 reducing negative gearing tax concessions, by 40-17 reducing capital gains tax concessions and by 36-24 reducing superannuation tax concessions. The one unpopular proposal was increasing the GST (54-18 disagreed).
Asked to pick up to three areas for spending cuts, 53% said foreign aid should be targeted, followed by 29% for renewable energy projects and 21% unemployment benefits. Foreign aid makes up just 0.5% of the total budget, renewable energy 0.6% and unemployment benefits 2.2%.
TheConversation.com
Author: Adrian Beaumont - Election Analyst (Psephologist) at The Conversation; and Honorary Associate, School of Mathematics and Statistics, The University of Melbourne
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