David Littleproud set to survive spill as pressure mounts on Sussan Ley

Nationals leader David Littleproud is expected to comfortably withstand a leadership spill when the party meets on Monday, even as instability inside the Liberal Party keeps Opposition Leader Sussan Ley under sustained pressure.

Leadership tensions have intensified across both Coalition partners since the Nationals walked away from the Coalition agreement two weeks ago. While Nationals insiders say Mr Littleproud's position is secure, Liberal MPs privately concede Ms Ley could face a spill motion as early as next week if conservative backers believe they have the numbers.

Nationals confident, Liberals divided

Flynn MP Colin Boyce is expected to move a spill motion against Mr Littleproud, but has acknowledged the Nationals leader would "comprehensively win" any ballot.

"This has never been about me being the leader," Mr Boyce said, describing the motion as an attempt to force a rethink and reunite the Coalition.

By contrast, Liberal MPs say the numbers remain tight. Supporters of Angus Taylor do not expect an immediate challenge in the first sitting week, citing insufficient support in the 51-member party room. However, a spill later in the fortnight remains a possibility, particularly if upcoming polls deliver further bad news.

One senior conservative said Ms Ley's biggest vulnerability was polling. "If it's as bad as expected, sentiment will turn very quickly," the MP said.

Moderates rally behind Ley

Moderate Liberals insist their support for Ms Ley is solid, noting she narrowly defeated Mr Taylor nine months ago. One described backing for the leader as "rock solid", dismissing claims her support among unaligned MPs was weakening.

They also questioned unity on the right, noting some MPs had previously favoured Andrew Hastie, who ruled himself out of a challenge last week after conceding he lacked sufficient support.

Tensions inside the party were further inflamed after a meeting involving Mr Hastie and Mr Taylor was held on the same day as the memorial service for former MP Katie Allen - a move some moderates labelled "utterly appalling".

Coalition reunion hits new roadblock

Any prospect of a Coalition reunion remains fraught. Nationals figures have suggested reconciliation would be possible if three senators who breached shadow cabinet solidarity were reinstated to the frontbench.

Deputy Nationals leader Kevin Hogan said the issue that prompted the split had not changed. But Liberal MPs have reacted angrily, warning that reinstating the senators would almost certainly trigger a leadership spill against Ms Ley.

Former Nationals leader Michael McCormack urged a swift reunion, arguing the circumstances of the resignations were "unconventional". Liberal frontbencher Dan Tehan called for senior figures from both parties to meet privately and consider stronger conflict-resolution mechanisms in any renewed Coalition agreement.

Ms Ley has sought talks with Mr Littleproud ahead of parliament's return, but has warned she will permanently replace Nationals frontbenchers if the split is not resolved by week's end.

Parliament returns under a cloud

Federal parliament resumes on Tuesday amid a dramatically altered political landscape. The Nationals' exit from the Coalition has doubled the size of the crossbench to match the Opposition, prompting what Home Affairs Minister Tony Burke described as "a big shift" in the chamber.

Ms Ley has installed an interim shadow cabinet, reallocating portfolios previously held by Nationals MPs while warning the appointments will become permanent if reconciliation fails.

Leadership speculation is also lingering over the Liberals, despite public backing for Ms Ley from senior colleagues, including finance spokesperson James Paterson, who has vowed to quit the frontbench if she is deposed.

Alongside leadership manoeuvring, MPs will return to debate a packed legislative agenda, including migration reforms and a proposal to pause automatic tax increases on draught beer.

As Canberra reopens, both major parties face a volatile first week - with leadership threats, Coalition negotiations and key legislation all colliding at once.