Why California voters approved a redistricting ballot measure, according to the AP Voter Poll

WASHINGTON (AP) – Most California voters didn’t like redrawing their congressional districts to favor Democrats. But many may have felt Republicans left them with no alternative.

The AP Voter Poll, an expansive survey of more than 4,000 voters in California, captured the mixed emotions of an electorate that chose to adopt President Donald Trump’s own strategy of rewriting the rules by redistricting outside of Census years. Most voters in favor of the proposition hoped to counter his efforts to preserve Republican control of the House in next year’s midterm elections – even if they thought redistricting should ideally happen another way.

The ballot measure’s success, as well as voters’ apparent hesitations, demonstrates how many people appear to see the current redistricting fight as a political necessity, even if they don’t agree with it in principle. The findings suggest that voters see this as a tense and high stakes moment for the country, where compromises may be required.

About 9 in 10 California voters said that, generally speaking, each state’s congressional district lines should be drawn by a non-partisan commission. But a majority nevertheless backed Proposition 50 to replace the existing districts with new maps crafted to send more California Democrats to the House of Representatives.

Roughly 7 in 10 California voters said party control of Congress was “very important” to them, and those voters overwhelmingly supported the amendment to the state’s constitution backed by Gov. Gavin Newsom, a Democrat who has emerged as one of Trump’s leading antagonists.

Newsom said ahead of the vote that democracy itself was at risk.

“Prop 50 is not about drawing lines on a map,” Newsom told a crowd. “It is about holding the line to what makes us who we are.”

The ballot measure was a response to Trump’s efforts earlier this year to tilt more congressional districts toward the GOP. Voter discontent with the status quo was apparent. About half of California voters said they are angry about the country’s direction, and a similar share pointed to the economy as the most important issue facing the state. Many voters have been left frustrated as Trump’s pledge to vanquish inflation has gone unfulfilled, while his import taxes have created a sense of confusion and chaos among businesses and the public.

The president has successfully pushed Texas, North Carolina, Ohio and Missouri to craft new congressional districts, with Trump placing pressure on additional states in an attempt to swing midterm races that have traditionally favored the party out of the White House.

“The Unconstitutional Redistricting Vote in California is a GIANT SCAM in that the entire process, in particular the Voting itself, is RIGGED,” Trump wrote.

Two-thirds of California voters said they were opposed to states redrawing their congressional district lines in response to how other states have drawn their lines. But the vast majority of the voters who supported the ballot measure said it was necessary to counter the changes made by Republicans in other states.

California now has the chance to do that by recrafting its 52 House seats in ways that could add five Democrats to Congress in next year’s elections. Democrats and voters who lean toward the Democrats – who make up a majority of voters in the state – overwhelmingly voted in support of the ballot measure.

Many acknowledged the process so far has been unjust. About half of California voters said neither the Republicans nor the Democrats are handling the redrawing of congressional district lines fairly.

But knowing the choices made by other state legislatures, enough California voters decided they had the right reason – even if it felt like the wrong thing.

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The 2025 AP Voter Poll, conducted by SSRS from Oct. 22 – Nov. 4, includes representative samples of registered voters in California (4,490), New Jersey (4,244), New York City (4,304) and Virginia (4,215). The AP Voter Poll combines data collected from validated registered voters online and by telephone, with data collected in-person from election day voters at approximately 30 precincts per state or city, excluding California. Respondents can complete the poll in English or Spanish. The overall margin of sampling error for voters, accounting for design effect, is plus or minus 2.0 percentage points in California, 2.1 percentage points in New Jersey, 2.2 percentage points in New York City, and 2.1 percentage points in Virginia.