UN is set to vote on the US plan for next steps in Gaza but it may all come down to Russia

UNITED NATIONS (AP) – The U.N. Security Council is set to vote Monday on a U.S. plan for Gaza that would provide international backing for a stabilization force and envisions a possible future pathway to an independent Palestinian state. But a big question remains: Will Russia veto it?

After nearly two weeks of negotiations on the U.S. resolution, Russia suddenly circulated a rival proposal late Thursday that would strip out reference to a transitional authority meant to be headed by President Donald Trump and ask the United Nations chief to provide options on an international force to provide security in Gaza.

The vote is a crucial next step for the fragile ceasefire and efforts to outline Gaza’s future following two years of war between Israel and Hamas. Arab and other Muslim countries that have expressed interest in providing troops for an international stabilization force have signaled that U.N. Security Council authorization is essential for their participation.

Several council diplomats said they are hopeful Russia and China will abstain because of their ties to eight Muslim-majority countries that urged “swift adoption” of the U.S. resolution. But Moscow’s vote especially remains a surprise, according to the diplomats, who spoke on condition of anonymity because of the sensitivity of the issue.

Russia is one of the five veto-wielding permanent members of the Security Council, along with China, France, Britain and the U.S.

The U.S. resolution endorses Trump’s 20-point ceasefire plan, which calls for a yet-to-be-established Board of Peace as a transitional authority that he would head. It also would authorize the stabilization force through the end of 2027 and gives a wide mandate, including overseeing the borders, providing security and demilitarizing the territory.

A joint U.S. statement with Qatar, Egypt, United Arab Emirates, Saudi Arabia, Indonesia, Pakistan, Jordan and Turkey – all key parties in pushing for a ceasefire and ensuring it holds – was released Friday after the U.S. faced objections about the weak language in a previous draft on Palestinian self-determination.

The U.S. revised it to say that after the Palestinian Authority – which now governs parts of the West Bank – makes reforms and redevelopment to the devastated Gaza Strip advances, “the conditions may finally be in place for a credible pathway to Palestinian self-determination and statehood.”

“The United States will establish a dialogue between Israel and the Palestinians to agree on a political horizon for peaceful and prosperous coexistence,” it adds.

That language angered Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, who vowed Sunday to oppose any attempt to establish a Palestinian state. He has long asserted that creating a Palestinian state would reward Hamas and eventually lead to an even larger Hamas-run state on Israel’s borders.

Israel’s mission says their representative will speak at Monday’s meeting but did not offer further reaction to the resolution.

Russia’s rival draft resolution includes stronger language supporting Palestinian statehood alongside Israel and stressing that the West Bank and Gaza must be joined as a state under the Palestinian Authority.

Russia’s U.N. mission would not comment on its plans for the vote. It said in a statement late Friday that it floated its own proposal because the Security Council, which is responsible for maintaining international peace and security, “should be given a rightful role and the necessary tools to ensure accountability and control.”

It asks U.N. Secretary-General Antonio Guterres to provide the council with options to implement Trump’s 20-point plan, including deployment of the stabilization force.

“We would like to stress that our document does not contradict the American initiative,” the Russian mission said. “On the contrary, it notes the tireless efforts by the mediators – the United States, Qatar, Egypt, and Turkey – without which the long-awaited ceasefire and the release of hostages and detainees would have been impossible.”