Preview capsule for the NBA Finals matchup between Indiana and Oklahoma City

Preview capsule on the Indiana-Oklahoma City NBA Finals that begin Thursday:

Season series: Thunder, 2-0.

Schedule: Game 1 at Oklahoma City on Thursday, Game 2 at Oklahoma City on Sunday, Game 3 at Indiana on June 11, Game 4 at Indiana on June 13, Game 5 at Oklahoma City on June 16 (if necessary), Game 6 at Indiana on June 19 (if necessary), Game 7 at Oklahoma City on June 22 (if necessary).

How they got here: Oklahoma City overwhelmed Memphis in a first-round sweep, survived seven games against 2023 NBA champion Denver, then eliminated Minnesota in five games in the Western Conference finals. The Thunder finished off the series in a romp, leading by 39 points in a 124-94 victory, and are winning by about 11 points per game in the postseason. The Pacers aren’t as dominant but find a way at the finish, taking out Milwaukee and top-seeded Cleveland in five games before knocking off New York in six in the East finals. Their four victories after trailing by 17 or more points are the most by a team in a single postseason.

Storyline: The small markets get the big stage. For Oklahoma City, it’s a second trip to the NBA Finals since moving from Seattle in 2008. The Thunder lost in their first try against Miami in 2012 but are heavy favorites in this one after compiling the NBA’s best record behind MVP and scoring champion Shai Gilgeous-Alexander. The Pacers are making just their second NBA Finals appearance, having lost to the Lakers in 2000.

Key matchup: Tyrese Haliburton vs. Lu Dort, Alex Caruso, Cason Wallace and Gilgeous-Alexander. Nobody can throw as many good defensive guards at a team as the Thunder, as Anthony Edwards found out when Oklahoma City limited him to 12-for-31 shooting in the final two games of the West finals. Haliburton is having a memorable postseason, hitting three game-winning or game-tying shots and topping all players with 9.8 assists. But the Thunder limited him well in the two regular-season matchups, holding the All-NBA point guard to 11 points and 5.5 assists per game.

X-factor: Indiana’s defense. The Pacers are potent, with their 117.4 points per game in the postseason the second-highest ever by a team entering the NBA Finals. But even they can’t count on offense alone against a top defensive squad like Oklahoma City. The Pacers are going to have to slow down the Thunder and showed no signs of being able to in the regular season, as Oklahoma City reached 30 points in six of the eight quarters they played and averaged 126 per game.

Prediction: The Thunder are top-to-bottom the best team in the NBA. The Pacers’ road success and high-scoring offense allow them to compete in this series but not win it. Oklahoma City in 6.