Polar vortex makes much of US colder than Greenland, but warmth is coming. Then more cold

WASHINGTON (AP) - The polar vortex hit its peak across much of America on Wednesday, with an icy grip that made Arctic Greenland seem like a toasty vacation spot in comparison. Even Mars has been warmer than North Dakota this week.

But there’s hope. Some of the coldest parts of the United States are forecast to see as much as a 90-degree warmup early next week, before the expected return of yet another polar plunge of freezing air the first week in March, meteorologists said.

At 34 degrees Fahrenheit (1 degree Celsius), Nuuk, the capital of Greenland - a giant ice-covered northern island that President Donald Trump is seeking to acquire - was 11 degrees (6 degrees Celsius) warmer than America’s capital of Washington, D.C. on Wednesday morning. The average low temperature Wednesday in the continental United States was 13.7 degrees (minus 10.2 Celsius) and Thursday’s average low looks to be a tenth of a degree colder, said private meteorologist Ryan Maue, former chief scientist at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.

Meanwhile, parts of Greenland have been having their version of a winter heat wave, with temperatures around 41 degrees (5 degrees Celsius) on a glacier east of Nuuk since Feb. 12 for a sustained melt, said Danish ice scientist Jason Box. That’s "alarming," said University of Colorado ice scientist Ted Scambos, who said like wildfire season, the Greenland melt season is seeming more year-round.

"They're sending us the cold air there, we're sending them the warm air," said Judah Cohen, seasonal forecast director at the private firm Atmospheric and Environmental Research.

Nuuk, Greenland, feels spring-like and warmer than Christmas in northern Spain, said Daniel Rodriguez, a Spaniard who moved to Greenland in 2023.

"The weather hasn’t been as cold as I thought it was going to be when I first moved here," said Rodriguez, 25. "It’s a little weird."

"Ten years ago, it’s cold and so much snow, but now it’s different," said Melina Moller-Olsen, a Greenlander who has lived in Nuuk for 41 years. "I don’t like it because I love the winter."

The polar vortex - which normally traps frigid air around the top of the globe - has stretched for the 10th time this winter and 13th time since October to bring the chill as far south as southern Texas, Cohen said. On top of that, high pressure and warm weather in Greenland is helping funnel and intensify the cold air with clear high pressure south to the United States making it extra cold, he said.

"We’re seeing the worst of the winter," Maue said. "This is extreme. It’s about as cold as it can get for this time of year for a lot of locations from the Dakotas down to Texas."

The long polar air outbreak peaked Wednesday in terms of intensity and breadth of the United States, said National Weather Service meteorologist Andrew Orrison of the Weather Prediction Center. Records were broken and more may fall, he and other meteorologists said. On Tuesday, Bismarck, North Dakota, set a record low of minus 39 degrees (both Fahrenheit and Celsius). On Monday, Bismarck had a high of minus 11 degrees (minus 24 Celsius). That same day, the Gale Crater on Mars warmed up to a high of minus 4 (minus 20 Celsius), Maue said.

Hettinger, North Dakota, on Wednesday was the coldest spot in the nation at minus 45 (minus 43 Celsius), Orrison said. But by Sunday that part of North Dakota will soar to around 50 Fahrenheit (10 Celsius) for a 90-degree swing, Orrison said.

It will take awhile for everybody to thaw out. On Saturday and Sunday, up to 230 million Americans will feel temperatures below freezing, Maue said. By Monday, only 143 million people will get that cold and by Tuesday only 40 million, he said. And on Tuesday, everybody in the United States will get above freezing at some point.

"We’re going to see some much warmer Pacific air take over," Maue said. "It just has to get here. It’s trying."

Even though the United States east of the Rockies - less than 2% of the globe’s surface - has been in an extended freeze, the rest of the world hasn’t. The entire Earth on Monday was 0.8 degrees (0.45 degrees Celsius) warmer than the 1991 to 2020 average, according to the European climate service Copernicus.

Computer forecast models say that the polar vortex is likely to stretch again, sending cold air south somewhere and probably to the United States, around March 5, Cohen said. This is quite late for a polar vortex stretching, Cohen said, but "this season everything seems very unusual."

In general, recent years have seen more polar vortex stretching events and that may be connected to an Arctic that is warming four times faster than the rest of the globe with human-caused climate change, Cohen said, pointing to a 2021 study he conducted. Other more natural factors, such as a La Nina - the temporary cooling of the central Pacific that alters weather worldwide - also seem to be in play, he said.

Looking at the past five winters, February, which is usually not as cold as January, keeps getting the coldest temperatures of the season and that's certainly the case this year, Maue said.