NASCAR hoping must-win scenarios at Martinsville will avoid manipulation repeat

NASCAR has a buzzy slogan for the third-round finale of its Cup Series playoffs.

With half of the remaining eight drivers desperate for a victory to reach the Championship 4 finale, Sunday is “Must-Win at Martinsville Speedway!”

That certainly has a better ring to it than “Manipulation at Martinsville!” or “Martinsville’s Massive Scandal!”

Those were the headlines written about what transpired last November at the 0.526-mile oval in southwest Virginia.

A coordinated effort between multiple teams and manufacturers to engineer the results erupted in a controversial finish to the third-round finale. Officials took nearly 30 minutes to sort out that William Byron would advance over Christopher Bell to race for the title in the season finale at Phoenix Raceway.

NASCAR issued a record $600,000 in fines and nine suspensions across three teams and added rulebook language in the offseason aimed at punishing race manipulation with a new penalty structure for manufacturers that engaged in nefarious behavior.

Highly attuned to preventing another scandal, NASCAR executives already have warned drivers and crew chiefs during the 2025 playoffs about shenanigans motivated by the championship. A beefed-up staff of officials will be in place Sunday to scrutinize radio communications for foul play over 500 laps at Martinsville.

“We’ll be on high alert this weekend,” NASCAR managing director of communications Mike Forde said on the “Hauler Talk” podcast. “Hopefully, it won’t matter.”

It’s likely there won’t be a repeat of the embarrassing episode.

With third-round winners Denny Hamlin ( at Las Vegas ) and Chase Briscoe ( Talladega ) having secured two of the berths in the Nov. 2 title race at Phoenix, the points breakdown is straightforward: The remaining six drivers are vying for the final two championship-eligible spots. Bell or Kyle Larson is virtually guaranteed to reach the Championship 4 based on the points standings, and both could advance without a victory.

For Byron, Ryan Blaney, Chase Elliott and Joey Logano, the overwhelmingly plausible way for the four drivers below the points cutline to make the title round is by taking the checkered flag.

That’s why “Must-Win At Martinsville” should be a relief for NASCAR – because it greatly reduces the likelihood that Hendrick Motorsports, Team Penske and Joe Gibbs Racing, as well as manufacturers Chevrolet, Ford and Toyota, could be tempted to order drivers to run interference for teammates to help gain or protect positions that improve points totals to reach the title race.

“I just don’t see those scenarios even presenting themselves to be possible or advantageous,” said Adam Stevens, the crew chief for Bell, who enters Martinsville ranked third in the standings and 37 points above the cutline.

Bell is a point ahead of Larson, who is in the last provisional Championship 4 spot but still well ahead of Hendrick teammate Byron, who trails by 36 points – the largest gap to the cutline for a cutoff race in NASCAR playoff history.

“We’re not worried about points or a race finish other than the win,” said Rudy Fugle, Byron’s crew chief.

The largest cutline deficit overcome in a cutoff race is 22 points. If none of the four drivers below the cutline wins Sunday, Bell and Larson easily could clinch title berths with top-25 finishes.

Data analytics firm Racing Insights lists each driver with an 81% probability of making the Championship 4, and the odds are much worse for Blaney (12.5%), Elliott (9.6%), Byron (8.5%) and Logano (6.1%). All six are former Martinsville winners.

Though there are 37 cars in the field Sunday, Larson and Bell essentially are in a match race with a championship berth for whoever scores the most points.

“You don’t want to spend too much focus on him. but the majority of it for sure revolves around Bell,” Larson said. “This year is a little bit simpler because there’s four guys that probably look at it as a must-win, and then me and Bell just look at it as we have to outpoint each other, and we’re in. You know what you have to do, but it’s just going out there and doing it is the tough part.”

After winning three consecutive championships with Logano (last year and in 2022) and Blaney (’23), Team Penske could fail to place a driver in the Championship 4 for the first time in four years.

Blaney has won the past two third-round cutoff races at Martinsville, and Penske’s strength has been on flat tracks such as Martinsville, Phoenix and New Hampshire Motor Speedway, where Blaney and Logano dominated last month. But the team has struggled in the playoffs with multiple tire failures while trying to maintain its edge.

“That’s just trying to find that little bit more,” said Paul Wolfe, crew chief for Logano. “That’s what we’re down to, pushing those limits without going over them, and we’ve had our struggles there a little bit here in the playoffs with that.”

The points fight between Bell and Larson will rekindle a longtime rivalry that dates back more than a decade to when they were teenage phenoms in dirt racing. Though they occasionally have feuded during six seasons of facing off in the Cup Series, Larson said he and Bell enjoy a healthy respect.

“I hated seeing him beat me all the time on dirt,” Larson said. “But it pushed me to get better. Once he got to NASCAR, I always really like seeing him do well because I like to root on guys that come from the dirt background. I don’t get as upset as I did when he was winning dirt races. Having us battle for trying to make the final four this weekend, it’s cool and says a lot about the dirt-racing community.”

Blaney (+350) is favored by BetMGM Sportsbook ahead of Hamlin (+425), who won March 30 at Martinsville, Elliott (+650), Larson (+675) and Bell (+675). … After victories at Las Vegas and Talladega, Toyota could become the first manufacturer to sweep the Round of 8 if a Camry wins at Martinsville. … Hendrick Motorsports, Joe Gibbs Racing and Team Penske – the three teams representing the eight playoff drivers – have combined to win the past 14 races at Martinsville.