France is on the brink as Macron’s government faces no-confidence votes

PARIS (AP) – France could sink deeper into political crisis Thursday when the prime minister faces two attempts in Parliament to topple his fragile new government, which could leave President Emmanuel Macron with no palatable option other than calling snap legislative elections.

Legislators in the National Assembly, the powerful but deeply divided lower house, will vote on no-confidence motions filed by Macron’s fiercest opponents – the hard-left France Unbowed party and Marine Le Pen of the far-right National Rally and her allies in Parliament.

If Prime Minister Sébastien Lecornu survives, it could be close. Should the ally of Macron fall, the president has signaled through a government spokeswoman that he could dissolve the National Assembly rather than name a replacement for Lecornu. He resigned as prime minister last week only for Macron to re-appoint him again four days later.

The outcome of legislative elections that would follow any National Assembly dissolution is uncertain. But Le Pen’s party – already the largest in the National Assembly – believes that it’s poised to make strong gains, possibly putting the National Rally in government for the first time should Macron take that route again, having tried it once before in June 2024.

Here’s a closer look at the high-stake no-confidence votes:

Le Pen has for weeks been campaigning hard for fresh legislative elections, buoyed by polls that suggest that the National Rally could capitalize, as it did after the last dissolution in 2024.

Le Pen and her right-wing ally Eric Ciotti filed their censure motion the morning after the newly re-appointed prime minister named his new Cabinet on Sunday. It says that dissolving the National Assembly “is the most efficient and most democratic way to get our country out of the dead end.”

The France Unbowed censure motion, also filed Monday morning, argues that toppling Lecornu could help spur the ouster of Macron, too – even though the French leader has said that he has no intention of cutting short his second and last presidential term that ends in 2027.

“The resignation or the impeachment of Emmanuel Macron are the only solutions to offer a clear democratic outcome to the current chaos: a return to the ballot boxes. That way, the people will have the opportunity to turn the page on an authoritarian presidency,” the motion says.

A majority of the 577 National Assembly legislators need to vote against Lecornu for him and his government to fall. The National Assembly will convene at 9 a.m. local time (0700 GMT) on Thursday and the France Unbowed motion will be voted on first.

Alone, the National Rally and France Unbowed can’t reach the required number of 289.

Le Pen’s party and its allied Union of the Right for the Republic led by Ciotti together have 139 lawmakers. On the other end of the political spectrum, France Unbowed has 71.

If they again pool votes despite their bitter ideological and personal rivalries, which they have done in the past, they’ll still need backing from other opposition lawmakers.

A left-wing of grouping of 38 lawmakers including the Ecologists says it also will vote against Lecornu. Many members of a smaller left-wing group of 17 lawmakers, in the large part communists, are also expected to follow suit.

But together, Lecornu’s opponents could still find themselves dozens of votes short of 289.

There are some wildcards, however, and the outcome could still be close.

Macron’s centrists are counting on support from their allies and for the opposition Socialists – with 69 lawmakers – and the conservative Republicans – with 50 – to not vote against Lecornu, because they could tip the outcome against him.

In a big carrot to the Socialists, Lecornu this week announced that he’ll suspend an extremely unpopular change to France’s retirement age, gradually raising it from 62 to 64. That flagship reform of Macron’s second term could now be sacrificed to buy time for Lecornu and some stability in the National Assembly as it sets to work on debating France’s budget for 2026, a priority for the European Union’s second-largest economy.

Even if Lecornu survives, lawmakers could file more no-confidence motions against his government in the weeks ahead in what are expected to be fractious budget negotiations.

“It’s extremely precarious,” said Camille Bedock, a political scientist with France’s National Centre for Scientific Research. “The chances of survival remain extremely thin.”