First and last spots in March Madness riding on outcome of conference tournaments

The first spot and last spot in the NCAA Tournament are riding on what happens in conference tournaments this week.

Auburn had been No. 1 the past two months, but competitive losses to Texas A&M and Alabama - the latter on a buzzer-beater in overtime - last week dropped the Tigers to No. 3 in the AP Top 25 on Monday. It also left them with a two-game losing streak as they begin the SEC Tournament as the No. 1 seed, and with little margin for error when it comes to the NCAA tourney.

The overall No. 1 seed in the field of 68 could come down to which of three teams can triumph in their league tournaments: the Tigers, newly-minted No. 1 and ACC top-seed Duke, or second-ranked Houston, the No. 1 seed in the Big 12 Tournament.

"We've really been about finishing what's right in front of us, doing our best in the moment," said Duke coach Jon Scheyer, whose team climbed to the top spot in the AP poll for the first time since November 2021 during the farewell season of his mentor and predecessor, Mike Krzyzewski. “We want to be 1 when it's all said and done."

While the race is on for the No. 1 overall seed, so is the battle for the final spots that will be awarded on Selection Sunday.

And there are a couple of games in power conferences that could prove to be win-and-in affairs.

In the loaded SEC Tournament, where nine teams can be considered locks, No. 12 seed Texas plays No. 13 seed Vanderbilt in the opening round Wednesday. The Longhorns (17-14) may need to make a big run not only to reach the NCAA tourney but also save coach Rodney Terry’s job, but the Commodores (20-11) could feel good about their NCAA hopes with a win.

That game takes place a couple of hours before No. 11 seed Georgia (20-11) plays No. 14 seed Oklahoma (19-12) in a game in which the winner could be dancing and the loser weighing an invitation from one of the lower-tier postseason tournaments.

In the Big Ten, No. 10 seed Ohio State (17-14) probably needs to beat No. 15 seed Iowa to feel good about its NCAA chances, and ninth-seeded Indiana (19-12) likewise may need to avenge a loss to Oregon to work its way into the field of 68.

Drake helped the power leagues over the weekend by winning the Missouri Valley championship; the Bulldogs were probably a lock to get an at-large berth had they lost to Bradley in the finale in St. Louis.

Now, the attention of the power conferences shifts to the Big West, where UC San Diego and UC Irvine are riding on the NCAA bubble. The top-seeded Tritons have won 13 straight heading into their conference tourney opener Friday, and they would warrant strong at-large consideration even with a loss. The Anteaters are the No. 2 seed and likewise deserve a hard look from the selection committee, especially if they fall to UC San Diego in the conference title game.

In the Mountain West, top-seeded New Mexico is a lock, but everyone else could be playing for their NCAA lives. Utah State, Colorado State, San Diego State and Boise State are at-large contenders if they can string together some wins.

In Conference USA and the Southland, the power leagues will be rooting for top seeds Liberty and McNeese State, respectively, to take care of business. Both could get long at-large looks, especially if they fall in their championship games.

VCU: Despite a loss to Dayton on Friday night, the top seed in the A-10 Tournament is almost guaranteed an at-large berth even with a loss, provided it doesn’t come in the first round. The Rams (25-6) are a solid No. 33 in the NET rankings.

North Carolina: The Tar Heels (20-12) are trying to avoid missing the NCAA Tournament for the second time in three years. They went 13-7 in the ACC but may need to win a game in the conference tournament. They are No. 40 in the NET.

Xavier: The fourth-seeded Musketeers (21-10) already know they will face No. 5 seed Marquette in the Big East quarterfinals on Thursday. Win and they could be in. Lose and Selection Sunday becomes an excruciating wait.