Duke’s Final Four fade against Houston puts the Blue Devils among top teams to fall short of title

SAN ANTONIO (AP) - Duke had spent much of the season looking like like it was headed to a coronation behind Associated Press national player of the year Cooper Flagg and a roster boasting elite efficiency at both ends.

Instead, the Blue Devils improbably squandered a big lead against Houston and saw their season end in the Final Four. And that puts this 35-win Duke team on a select list of elite teams that fell short of winning the NCAA title in the 40 tournaments since expansion to 64 teams in 1985.

Entering the weekend, the Final Four’s all-chalk set of 1-seeds boasted historically elite KenPom numbers when it comes to net efficiency, which is based on how much a team’s offensive data outscores that of its defense while factoring in the quality of opponent. All were plus-35 or better, a threshold only six teams had finished with in KenPom’s history previously going back to 1997.

Duke was the best at plus-39.62 for the No. 2 rate ever recorded by KenPom. Only now, Duke is joining Auburn on the sideline as Florida faces Houston - in its first title game since the Phi Slama Jama teams of the 1980s - on Monday night.

"It’s been a special ride," Duke coach Jon Scheyer said, "that ended in a heartbreaking way."

John Thompson’s reigning champion Hoyas (35-3) made it back to the title game behind AP national player of the year Patrick Ewing, only to become the final victim in eighth-seeded Villanova’s improbable title run.

Rollie Massimino’s Wildcats made 22 of 28 shots (78.6%) in the win at Rupp Arena and remain the lowest-seeded team to cut down the nets.

It seemed Jerry Tarkanian’s Rebels (34-1) were headed for the history as the first repeat champion since UCLA’s run of seven straight from 1967-73, along with becoming the first unbeaten champ since Indiana in 1976.

That team was a wire-to-wire No. 1 in the AP Top 25 behind eventual No. 1 overall NBA draft pick Larry Johnson and averaged 97.7 points and outscored opponents by an average of 26.7 points.

Yet a season of romping wins ended when Mike Krzyzewski’s Duke team - which lost by 30 to UNLV in the previous year’s final - stunned the Rebels i n the Final Four in Indianapolis before winning its first title.

The famed "Fab Five" burst on the scene as a cultural phenomenon as an all-freshman unit that unexpectedly reached the title game in 1992. A year later, the Wolverines (31-5) made it back and played a compelling finale against North Carolina.

But that one featured a tournament-lore blunder of eventual No. 1 overall NBA draft pick Chris Webber receiving a late technical foul for calling a timeout the Wolverines didn’t have to essentially seal the loss.

This might have been the best team of Roy Williams’ Hall of Fame career, one led by eventual NBA star Paul Pierce and Raef LaFrentz. But the Jayhawks (34-2) fell in the Sweet 16 to eventual champion Arizona despite ranking in the top five in efficiency at both ends for KenPom.

That team spent 15 weeks at No. 1 and three weeks at No. 2 in the AP Top 25.

The Tar Heels (34-4) played their first year under Bill Guthridge after Dean Smith’s retirement with the AP national player of the year in Antawn Jamison and a future longtime NBA star in Vince Carter. UNC was an offensive machine that shot 51.8% overall and had a national-best 126.3 points per 100 possessions according to KenPom.

But the No. 1 team in the final AP Top 25 poll fell to Rick Majerus and Utah in San Antonio’s first Final Four.

Statistically, this is KenPom’s all-time best team, with the Blue Devils (37-2) posting an adjusted net-efficiency rating of plus-43.01. The team had AP national player of the year and eventual No. 1 overall NBA draft pick Elton Brand as the headliner among four of that year’s top 14 picks.

But UConn - led by Richard Hamilton and Khalid El-Amin - pushed past Duke in the title game for that program’s first title.

The Fighting Illini (37-2) spent the last 15 polls at No. 1 in the AP Top 25 with a guard-heavy lineup featuring eventual NBA star Deron Williams, Luther Head and Dee Brown. Illinois lost a tense final against UNC to give Roy Williams his first NCAA title.

The Tigers (38-2) rode the wizardry of freshman star and No. 1 overall NBA draft pick Derrick Rose to the brink of John Calipari’s first title. But Memphis squandered a nine-point lead in the final 2:12 of regulation in the title game, with Kansas’ Mario Chalmers hitting a memorable 3-pointer to force overtime on the way to Bill Self’s Jayhawks winning the program’s first title in 20 years.

The Wildcats (38-1) carried an unbeaten record to the Final Four in Indianapolis before falling to Wisconsin in the national semifinals, ending a season in which they were plus-36.91 in KenPom’s adjusted net efficiency for the fourth-highest mark ever.

The season dominated by the supernova star status of Zion Williamson and fellow NBA lottery picks RJ Barrett and Cam Reddish seemed headed for the Final Four. Williamson was only the third freshman to win AP national player of the year and was on his way to becoming the No. 1 overall NBA draft pick with jaw-dropping dunks and athleticism.

Yet the Blue Devils (32-6) fell to Tom Izzo’s Michigan State in a regional final.

Once more, an unbeaten team saw its hopes of a perfect title season end in Indianapolis. The Zags (31-1) rolled through the season hampered by the COVID-19 pandemic to post one of KenPom’s top net efficiency numbers as they chased their first NCAA title, only to see a Baylor team with elite guard play blow them out in the title game.