China, world’s top carbon pollutor, likely to overdeliver on climate goals. Will that be enough?

BEIJING (AP) – China is likely to overdeliver on the modest goals the government has set to cut carbon pollution, experts say. The question is whether that will be enough to help the world curb warming?

That’s important ahead of the annual United Nations climate conference, known as COP30, which is being hosted in Brazil and gets underway this week. China’s 2035 goals, a 35-page document submitted Monday, adds detail to the broad targets announced by leader Xi Jinping in late September.

All countries that signed the 2015 Paris Agreement on climate are required to update their goals, called “Nationally Determined Contributions,” every five years. China’s goals are particularly important for two reasons: It is the world’s largest producer of emissions, which are the main cause of climate change, and it’s the global leader in the production of green technologies from wind and solar power to electric vehicles.

For the first time, China set a specific target for reducing emissions. However, it falls short of what analysts say is needed to meet the Paris goal of limiting average global temperature increase to 2 degrees Celsius (3.6 degrees Fahrenheit), and ideally to 1.5 degrees Celsius (2.7 Fahrenheit), compared to the 1850s.

Xi announced in a video message to a U.N. climate meeting in September that China would cut greenhouse gas emissions by 7% to 10% by 2035, and would strive to do even better than that.

Modeling by multiple climate experts shows that China would need to cut emissions by around 30% for the world to be on track to the Paris goal.

“This is disappointing as China has the opportunity to decarbonize faster,” Norah Zhang, an analyst at Climate Action Tracker, said after Xi’s announcement.

Previously, China had not pledged to reduce its carbon dioxide emissions. Instead, it promised to reduce its emissions relative to the size of its economy – so they could still grow but at a slower pace than the economy. Its goal has been to have CO2 emissions peak before 2030.

Beyond reducing emissions, China’s other 2035 targets include:

– Raise the non-fossil fuel contribution to energy consumption from 20% to 30%.

– Reach 3,600 gigawatts of solar and wind capacity.

– Make electric vehicles the mainstream mode of transportation.

– Expand its emissions target to include all greenhouse gases, not just CO2.

Chai Qimin, a member of the group that developed China’s latest goals, says the criticism ignores the difference in development stage between rich nations and China.

“No major economy in history has reduced its emissions by more than 10% within five years after peaking,” he told China Environment News, a news outlet under the Ministry of Ecology and Environment.

China’s proposed emission reduction exceeds the combined reductions of Europe and the United States during the same historical period, he said.

The 7%-10% reduction range covers both the best and worst-case scenarios, taking into account growing trade restrictions, threats to energy security and the possibility of slower-than-expected technological progress.

There is reason for hope. China has a track record of setting relatively conservative goals and far surpassing them.

The rapid deployment of wind and solar energy blasted through a target of 1,200 gigawatts six years ahead of schedule and reached 1,680 gigawatts as of July, according to the National Energy Administration, giving China the world’s largest renewable energy capacity.

That in turn has made it likely that China’s emissions peak will happen well ahead of its “before 2030” goal. Analysts say it could even happen this year.

The one area where it may fall short in is its emissions of CO2 relative to the size of the economy. That figure did fall 48% from 2005 to 2020, exceeding a promised 40%-46% reduction.

But progress has slowed, and current trends suggest it won’t reach its target of reducing the intensity by 65% by 2030.

The goals don’t include anything on coal power capacity or generation, noted Ryna Cui, an expert on coal phase-out strategies at the University of Maryland. She said that coal is the likely driver of China’s overall emissions.

The targets do say China will “strictly control fossil fuel consumption” and promote the upgrading of coal power to make it more efficient and flexible and reduce its emissions.

The government has been unwilling to give up on coal, which it sees as a more reliable source of energy, and has even encouraged coal plant construction in recent years.

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Video producer Olivia Zhang contributed to this report.