NASCAR’s title-deciding race: Hendrick vs. Gibbs, Chevrolet vs. Toyota

AVONDALE, Ariz. (AP) – There are only two certainties heading into NASCAR’s title-deciding season finale race: Rick Hendrick or Joe Gibbs will be the winning car owner, while the driver will be in either a Chevrolet or a Toyota.

Beyond that, the winner-take-all showdown Sunday at Phoenix Raceway is a guessing game with no obvious favorite among Denny Hamlin and Chase Briscoe from Joe Gibbs Racing, and William Byron and Kyle Larson of Hendrick Motorsports.

Hamlin leads the series in race wins (six), while Briscoe is the series leader in poles (seven) and top-five finishes (15). Byron was NASCAR’s regular-season champion and led a series-high 1,278 laps, while Larson has the second-most top-10 finishes in the series (21). Byron and Larson are tied for the series lead in stage wins (10).

Hamlin is probably the sentimental pick. The three-time Daytona 500 winner is already regarded as the most accomplished driver to never win a Cup Series title, an unwanted moniker previously held by Hall of Famer Mark Martin.

But with 60 race wins and at least five blown opportunities to win the championship, Hamlin has seized the bridesmaid role away from Martin.

“Mark Martin didn’t have nearly the same amount of misses as me, there’s just no way,” Hamlin said before rattling off a list of bad luck, bad decisions and bad timing that has caused him to finish second to Jimmie Johnson in a 2010 head-to-head race, then fall short four separate times in the “Championship 4” format in 2014.

He’s made it back to the finale this season for a fifth time, first since 2021.

Larson is the only driver in the field with a Cup title – he won it in 2021 in his first season driving for Hendrick. He was runner-up in 2023, but is making just his third appearance in the championship race.

Byron, the two-time reigning Daytona 500 winner, is back in the finale for a third consecutive year after winning last week at Martinsville Speedway to grab one of the two open slots in the championship field. Larson took the final spot on points over Christopher Bell, who just missed out on giving Gibbs three shots at the Cup.

Briscoe, in his first season driving for Gibbs, is in the final four for the first time in his career. He did race in this format for the second-tier Xfinity Series championship in 2020 when he won a series-high nine races, but Austin Cindric took the title by winning the race.

“I guess when I was a little kid I dreamed about winning a NASCAR championship, but it was just a pipe dream, you know? It wasn’t something I thought I’d ever actually get a chance to do,” Briscoe said. “My goal was to just race one race in NASCAR – at any level – just being able to do that was already a dream come true.”

It is the second time in four years that the championship field is an even split between the two winningest playoff teams in NASCAR history. Hendrick got the win the first time, in 2021 when Larson defeated teammate Chase Elliott, as well as Gibbs drivers Hamlin and Martin Truex Jr.

“We got one race. We know what we’re up against, somebody that’s really, really good,” Gibbs said. “Two cars in there for them. Two for us. Hopefully this will be good for the fans and everybody and the excitement. Probably won’t be good for me. I’ll be so nervous.”

Team Penske won the last three championships with Joey Logano and Ryan Blaney, but when both failed to win at Martinsville, Logano lost a shot to defend last year’s win and Ford was locked out of the finale. That means Chevrolet can win its first title since 2021, and Toyota has a chance at its first since Kyle Busch won driving for Gibbs in 2019.

Hamlin, Briscoe and Byron all won playoff races to advance this far, while Larson did it on points as he’s mired in a losing streak that dates back to Kansas in early May before Larson’s second try to complete the Indianapolis 500 and Coca-Cola 600 on the same day.

“There’s a lot of races he was leading the race, and a caution came out and something happened,” said Hendrick, noting that Larson was leading when he ran out of gas at Talladega and Briscoe got the victory and the automatic berth in the championship.

“I think he’s got the bit in his teeth right now,” Hendrick continued. “The guys have worked hard on our flat track, short track program. Kyle’s ready, and so is William. I’m looking forward to this weekend and trying to get another championship.”