Why Cyber Monday could break spending records despite economic uncertainty

NEW YORK (AP) – Deals promoted as some of the best of the holiday season are expected to keep people across the United States glued to their computers and smartphones as the post-Thanksgiving shopping marathon wraps up on Cyber Monday.

It’s no secret that buying things online is now a staple of many people’s everyday routines. And year after year, those purchases mount during the gift-giving holiday rush. Experts expect consumers to drive record Cyber Monday spending this year, despite wider economic uncertainty.

Adobe Analytics estimates that U.S. shoppers will spend $14.2 billion online Monday, or 6.3% more than in 2024. Spending is expected to peak between the hours of 8 p.m. and 10 p.m. local time, when Adobe expects $16 million to pass through online shopping carts every minute nationwide.

U.S. consumers already spent $11.8 billion online for Black Friday, $6.4 billion on Thanksgiving Day and another $11.8 billion over the weekend – exceeding Adobe’s forecasts. Purchases made across Cyber Week – the five major shopping days between Thanksgiving and Cyber Monday – provides a strong indication of how much shoppers are willing to spend for the holidays.

“Cyber Week is off to a strong start,” Vivek Pandya, lead analyst at Adobe Digital Insights, said. “Discounts are set to remain elevated through Cyber Monday, which we expect will remain the biggest online shopping day of the season and year.”

Deals on electronics and apparel are expecdted to peak Monday at 30% and 26% off average listed prices, per Adobe’s latest estimates. But other categories will still continue to see deep discounts – including toys, which Adobe expects to reach 27% off listed prices.

Meanwhile, software company Salesforce – which tracks digital spending from a range of retailers, including grocers – estimates Cyber Monday’s online sales will total $13.4 billion in the U.S. and $53.7 billion globally.

While the amount of money going into online shopping carts is expected to reach new heights Monday, rising retail prices also may contribute to any record sales figures that materialize. Consumers may be buying fewer total items. Experts say tighter budgets are causing many to shop with more precision than in years past – such as focusing on a few “big ticket” purchases, for example, and spreading out what they buy over days of promotions in hopes of getting the most bang for their buck.

Businesses and households have watched anxiously for financial impacts from U.S. President Donald Trump’s tariffs on foreign imports. Workers in both the public and private sectors are also struggling with anxieties over job security amid both corporate layoffs and the after-effects of the 43-day government shutdown.

For the November-December holiday season overall, the National Retail Federation estimates that U.S. shoppers will spend more than $1 trillion for the first time this year. But the rate of growth is slowing – with an anticipated increase of 3.7% to 4.2% year over year, compared with 4.3% during last year’s holiday season.

At the same time, credit card debt and delinquencies on other short-term loans have been rising. More and more shoppers are turning to “buy now, pay later” plans, which allow them to delay payments on holiday decor, gifts and other items.

Buy now, pay later loans are expected to drive $20.2 billion in online spending this holiday season, according to Adobe, up 11% from last year. The firm predicted that buy now, pay later loans would pass a new $1 billion milestone on Cyber Monday, the vast majority involving purchases made on mobile devices.

Overall, mobile devices have become the dominant shopping platform consumers are turning to for the holidays. Adobe expects smartphones, wearable tech and other handheld electronics to account for 58% of online spending this season.

Five years ago, a majority of online purchases were made on desktops.

Shopping services powered by artificial intelligence are also expected to play a role in what consumers choose to buy. For Black Friday, Salesforce estimated that AI assistants and digital agents contributed to $14.2 billion of the total $79 billion it said was spent online worldwide.

Across the holiday season, “hot sellers” will include gaming consoles such as the Nintendo Switch 2 and toys-turned-fashion statements like Labubu Dolls, Adobe said. The analytics company anticipates the newest editions of popular consumer electronics – including the iPhone 17, Google Pixel 10 and Samsung Galaxy S25 – will also see high demand.

To many, Cyber Monday is billed as the “last call” to take advantage of the deepest discounts in the days following Thanksgiving. But its reach has grown over the years.

Cyber Monday is two decades old now, dating back to when the National Retail Federation first coined the term in 2005. Today, sales continue to bubble up throughout the week – riding on the hype that the industry has built to fuel consumer spending.