Guinea votes in first election since 2021 coup with junta leader expected to win

CONAKRY, Guinea (AP) – Guineans are voting Sunday to elect a new president in the country’s first election since a 2021 coup, as analysts say a weakened opposition will result in a likely win for junta leader Gen. Mamadi Doumbouya.

Sunday’s election is the culmination of a transition process that began four years ago after Doumbouya ousted President Alpha Condé. The junta leader has proceeded to clamp down on the main opposition and dissent, critics say, leaving him with no major opposition among the eight other candidates in the race.

Despite Guinea’s rich mineral resources – including as the world’s biggest exporter of bauxite, used to make aluminum – more than half of its 15 million people are experiencing record levels of poverty and food insecurity, according to the World Food Program.

“This vote is the hope of young people, especially for us unemployed,” said Idrissa Camara, an 18-year-old resident of Conakry, who said he has been unemployed since graduating from university five years ago. “I’m forced to do odd jobs to survive. I hope this vote will improve the standard of living and the quality of life in Guinea,” he added.

The election is being held under a new constitution that revoked a ban on military leaders running for office and extended the presidential mandate from five to seven years. That constitution was overwhelmingly approved in a September referendum despite opposition parties asking voters to boycott it.

The vote is the latest such election among African countries that have seen a surge in coups in recent years. At least 10 countries in the young continent have experienced soldiers forcefully taking power after accusing elected leaders of failing to provide good governance and security for citizens.

“This election will open a new page in Guinea’s history and mark the country’s return to the league of nations,” said Guinea political analyst Aboubacar Sidiki Diakité. “Doumbouya is undoubtedly the favorite in this presidential election because the main opposition political parties have been sidelined and the General Directorate of Elections, the body that oversees the presidential election, is under the supervision of the government,” he added.

In addition to a weakened opposition, activists and rights groups say Guinea has since the coup seen civil society leaders silenced, critics abducted and the press censored. More than 50 political parties were dissolved last year in a move authorities claimed was to “clean up the political chessboard” despite widespread criticism.

There was heavy security in Conakry and other parts of Guinea with nearly 12,000 police officers among security forces mobilized and checkpoints set up along major roads. Authorities had said on Saturday that security forces “neutralized” an armed group with “subversive intentions threatening national security” after gunshots were heard in Conakry’s Sonfonia neighborhood.

Across polling stations, long queues of mostly young voters waited to cast their ballot while police officers closely monitored the process.

A total of nine candidates are contesting the election, and Doumbouya’s closest challenger is the little-known Yero Baldé of the Democratic Front of Guinea party, who was education minister under Condé.

Two opposition candidates, former Prime Minister Lansana Kouyaté and former government minister Ousmane Kaba, were excluded on technical grounds while longtime opposition leaders Cellou Dalein Diallo and Sidya Toure have been forced into exile.

While Baldé has hinged his campaign on promises of governance reforms, anti-corruption efforts and economic growth, Doumbouya has built his around major infrastructure projects and reforms launched since taking power four years ago.

The junta’s most important project has been the Simandou iron ore project, a 75% Chinese-owned mega-mining project at the world’s largest iron ore deposit which began production last month after decades of delays.

Authorities say that a national development plan tied to the Simandou project aims to create tens of thousands of jobs and diversify the economy through investments in agriculture, education, transport, technology and health.

“In four years, he (Doumbouya) has connected Guinean youth to information and communication technologies,” said Mamadama Touré, a high school student wearing a T-shirt with Doumbouya’s image in the capital of Conakry, as he cited digital skills training programs put in place by the authorities.

About 6.7 million registered voters are expected to cast ballots at roughly 24,000 polling stations nationwide, with results expected within 48 hours. There will be a runoff if no candidate wins a majority of the votes.

In Conakry, 22-year-old student Issatou Bah said he is still undecided about whether to vote in the election.

“This is the third time I’ve voted in Guinea, hoping things will change. But nothing has changed,” said Bah, adding that he hopes the election will improve “this country that has everything but struggles to take off.”