Bolivia heads to a runoff after an election ends two decades of ruling party dominance

LA PAZ, Bolivia (AP) – Bolivia’s presidential vote is headed to an unprecedented runoff after Sunday’s election ended over two decades of ruling party dominance in the Andean nation.

A centrist lawmaker from a prominent political family, Sen. Rodrigo Paz, and a right-wing former president, Jorge “Tuto” Quiroga, will face off in October after a first round of voting knocked out candidates allied with the nation’s long-dominant Movement Toward Socialism, or MAS, party.

Paz, a former mayor, campaigned with the slogan “Capitalism for all” – rejecting the statist policies of MAS while pitching a more inclusive approach to rescuing Bolivia from its worst economic crisis in four decades. He has promised to lower tariffs, reduce taxes and make small loans more accessible for entrepreneurs.

“Bolivia is looking for change, looking for renewal,” Paz told The Associated Press after his win. “The vast majority of people have expressed that desire for renewal – merchants, the self-employed, transport workers, the great majority of this country.”

Paz had been trailing in opinion polls for weeks. But he gained unexpected traction as he teamed up with Edman Lara, a social media savvy ex-police captain with evangelical backing who was fired for denouncing corruption in the security services.

“We did not invest millions, we invested in the people’s trust,” Lara told local media on Monday, seeking to portray his ticket as a humble alternative to that of the wealthy right-wingers who poured exorbitant sums into campaigning. ” While others spent fortunes on posters and TV spots, we trusted in the strength of the citizens and a message of unity.”

Paz secured a lead over Quiroga with over 32% of the votes cast. Quiroga received just over 26%. Candidates needed to surpass 50%, or 40% with a 10-point margin of victory, to avoid a runoff.

Bolivia holds the presidential runoff – its first since its 1982 return to democracy – on Oct. 19.

“Now, the ball is in the hands of the Bolivian people,” said leftist President Luis Arce, who will leave office following plummeting approval ratings reflecting popular frustration with his government’s mismanagement of the economy. “Democracy has triumphed!”

The results delivered a blow to Bolivia’s hegemonic MAS party, which has governed almost uninterrupted since its founder, charismatic ex-President Evo Morales, rose to power as part of the “pink tide” of leaders who swept into office across Latin America during the commodities boom of the early 2000s.

Bolivia faces a return to belt-tightening. After years of alignment with world powers like China and Russia, it seems set to reconcile with the United States.

The official MAS candidate, Eduardo del Castillo, finished sixth with 3.2% of the vote. A candidate considered to be the party’s best hope, 36-year-old Senate president Andrónico Rodríguez, captured 8% of the vote.

During his almost 14 years in power, Morales expanded the rights of the country’s Indigenous majority, defended coca growers against U.S.-backed eradication programs and poured natural gas profits into social programs.

But the maverick leader’s increasingly high-handed attempts to prolong his presidency – along with allegations of sexual relations with underage girls – soured public opinion against him.

Discontent turned into outrage as Bolivia’s once-stable economy imploded under Morales’ protégé-turned-rival, President Arce.

Annual inflation rate has soared from 2% less than two years ago to 25% as of last month. A scarcity of fuel has paralyzed the country. A shortage of U.S. dollars needed to pay for essential imports like wheat has crippled the economy.

As the crisis accelerated, MAS leaders traded blame. A power struggle between Morales and Arce fractured the bloc and handed the opposition its first real shot at victory in decades, even as its uncharismatic candidates failed to unite.

Blocked from running by a court ruling on term limits, Morales has been holed up in his stronghold of Chapare for months evading an arrest warrant for allegedly impregnating a 15-year-old girl while president.

He has branded Rodríguez a traitor for competing and encouraged his supporters to register their anger at his exclusion by casting null-and-void ballots.

His followers appeared to heed his call: An unusually high proportion of votes, 19%, were deemed invalid. The share of blank and null votes in Bolivia elections rarely exceeds 6%.

Voting even in the restive jungle largely passed peacefully, authorities said, with only minor disruptions.

A dynamite stick went off near the school where Rodríguez planned to cast his ballot in Chapare. When he arrived hours later, pro-Morales crowds assaulted him with bottles and rocks as he voted. Whisked away by guards, Rodríguez later called it a “difficult moment.”

Paz’s victory came as a shock, as opinion polls had long suggested that Quiroga and businessman Samuel Doria Medina would be the top two contenders.

Paz has sought to distance himself from pledges by Quiroga and Doria Medina to sell Bolivia’s abundant lithium reserves to foreign companies and turn to the International Monetary Fund for billions of dollars of loans.

But he has also launched blistering attacks on the MAS party and its economic model.

“People wanted something new, and, after not finding that in a radical on the right or someone who fully represented socialism, they have obviously opted for Paz,” said Álvaro Chipana, who was strolling Monday in the affluent southern part of Bolivia’s capital of La Paz. “I think it’s a very good option.”

Paz’s supporters have described the former mayor Bolivia’s southern town of Tarija as a fresh face with new ideas, in contrast to Doria Medina and Quiroga, who served in the U.S.-backed neoliberal administrations that Morales repudiated when he stormed to office in 2006, declaring an end to Bolivia’s 20-year experiment with free-market capitalism.

But the 57-year-old Paz, the son of former President Jaime Paz Zamora (1989-1993), has been in politics for some two decades and as a senator since 2020. He was born in Spain when his father, founder of a radical leftist party, was exiled during the country’s military dictatorship.