Don’t write off future Cinderellas just because it’s an all-power conference Sweet 16, coaches say

INDIANAPOLIS (AP) - Nearly every year there’s at least one lovable underdog that rises from obscurity in the NCAA Tournament to capture the hearts of basketball fans and bust their brackets.

Not this year.

All 16 regional semifinalists are from power conferences for the first time since the bracket expanded to 64 teams in 1985. The popular theory is that the transfer portal has led to a concentration of the best players at the big schools paying the most NIL money and, soon, the most through revenue sharing.

Is this year just an anomaly? Purdue coach Matt Painter, whose 2023 team became the second No. 1 seed of all-time to lose to a No. 16 (Fairleigh Dickinson), sure hopes not.

"The upsets and how valuable the upsets are to the common fan, it’s created March Madness," he said Thursday. "Let's not get away from it. It's a big piece of March Madness."

Arizona’s Tommy Lloyd said it’s too early to know if the days of Cinderellas are over, or at least not as common.

"I don't know if there's enough sample size yet to say this is NIL-driven or just how it broke this year,” Lloyd said.

There were three straight 15-seeds in the Sweet 16 three straight years recently - Oral Roberts in 2021, Saint Peter’s in 2022 and Princeton in 2023. Those Peacocks of Saint Peter’s made it all the way to the Elite Eight.

And remember Florida Gulf Coast’s "Dunk City" team in 2013? It was the first No. 15 to win two games in a tournament. How about 2018 Loyola-Chicago, Sister Jean and the 11th-seeded Ramblers’ run to the Final Four?

Those types of storylines are conspicuously missing this year with the SEC sending a record seven teams to the Sweet 16, the Big Ten and Big 12 four apiece and the ACC one.

That doesn’t mean the little guys haven’t provided some highlights. No. 12 seed McNeese State, with its social media star student manager, knocked off Clemson, while No. 11 Drake and its four Division II transfer starters took out Missouri, and No. 15 Robert Morris played Alabama close until fading at the end.

Kentucky’s Mark Pope said those games provided requisite March drama, and the depth of talent pool among players and coaches is so deep that there’ll always be jarring upsets.

"I think it's because it's a pure meritocracy," he said. “Once you start playing, doesn't matter what your budget is, doesn't matter if you came in on a bus or flew in on a plane. Doesn't matter if you don't have 17 different uniforms or if you have only one. Doesn't matter if you have holes in your shoes or your 75th new pair."

BYU coach Kevin Young said this year’s Sweet 16 field illustrates the struggle mid-majors face in the new era of college athletics.

"It’s not even that people are coming to get their players," he said. “Kids are smart; they see what's out there, and they think that they can better their situation by going in the portal and maybe going to a bigger school that can offer more to them."

Three of the five first-team AP All-Americans this season started out at programs outside the power conference - Auburn’s Johni Broome at Morehead State, Alabama’s Mark Sears at Ohio and Florida’s Walter Clayton Jr. at Robert Morris. Same with three of the second-team picks - JT Toppin of Texas Tech (New Mexico), RJ Luis Jr. of St. John’s (UMass) and John Tonje of Wisconsin (Colorado State).

Nate Oats, who parlayed March magic at Buffalo into his current job at Alabama, said coaches at strong mid-major programs face a nearly impossible task keeping their rosters intact.

"I don't know that I would have been able to keep my whole team together at Buffalo in today's day and age," said Oats, whose 2018 and ’19 teams won first-round games.

While power-conference programs are trending older with the transfer portal and not relying as much on high school recruits, Oats said, mid-majors that bring in the very best young talent will still have opportunities to win in March.

"There's a lot of freshmen that are not getting offered at the high-major level that would have used to get offered that now are ending up at mid-major schools, and some of them are really good," Oats said. “Those mid-major schools, they're going to have to do a really good job of evaluating talent coming out of high school.

"I think it’s still going to be done, but it might be a little bit harder. I think you'll still see some Cinderellas coming through."