MLB hitters swinging at first pitches at highest rate since 1988

CHICAGO (AP) – Pete Crow-Armstrong is ready to go. Same goes for Bryce Harper and Nick Castellanos. Ceddanne Rafaela, too.

They are the kings of swinging at the first pitch – and they have some company.

Through Thursday’s games, the MLB-wide swing percentage on first pitches this year was 32.1%, according to Sportradar. That is the same number as last year, and an increase from 31% in both 2022 and 2023.

While there are some pitches missing from the data before the 2000 season, the percentage for each of the last two years is the highest such number since it was 32.6% in 1988.

“I just think that the message that gets preached more often these days is being ready to hit good pitches,” Chicago Cubs shortstop Dansby Swanson said. “And obviously pitchers want to get ahead because they’re trying to get to two strikes as fast as possible. Most guys probably feel like they can have success earlier in counts than they can later in counts.”

Castellanos leads the way at 56%, followed by Harper – another slugger with the Phillies – at 53.9%. Crow-Armstrong, an All-Star center fielder with the Cubs, is next at 52.7%, and Rafaela of the Red Sox is fourth at 50.8%. They are the only qualified batters in the majors that clear 50%, according to Sportradar.

The 33-year-old Castellanos said swinging at the first pitch isn’t something that he consciously thinks about. He attributed his percentage to just being ready to hit, and he pointed to his first at-bat in a recent game while detailing his approach.

“I saw a slider for a strike which is a good pitch to hit,” he said. “And I’m like, all right, well now let’s see. He’s probably going to waste a pitch here or whatever. Threw me another slider that was a good pitch to hit. And then, now I’m 0-2, I saw two good pitches to hit, and now I haven’t even seen what his fastball looks like yet. So, for me, it’s just like a double-edged sword. But sometimes you go up there and I might see one and you end up 3-0.”

Mariners right-hander Bryan Woo (40.1%) and Blue Jays right-hander Kevin Gausman (39%) are the top pitchers when it comes to batters swinging at the first pitch. Tigers ace Tarik Skubal (38.6%), who is contending for a second straight AL Cy Young Award, is next, followed by Rangers right-hander Jacob deGrom (37.8%).

Gausman’s first-pitch swing percentage was 35.6 last year and 32 in 2023.

“I look at the numbers. I know that it’s higher than usual this year,” Gausman said. “You know 3-2 is always the highest swing percentage of any count, and that never changes. But 0-0 has gotten higher. The only reason I can think of is me and Woo throw a lot of strikes. If you’re an offense game-planning against us you know, ‘Hey, if he’s going to be in the zone within the first three pitches.'”

According to Sportradar, the MLB-wide batting average on the first pitch is .338, compared to .333 last year and .348 in 2023. That number has captured Gausman’s attention as well.

“I think in the past, there was a lot more free strikes,” he said. “Even thinking about scouting, it was a lot more guys like, ‘Hey, we can steal a strike 0-0.’ There’s not many guys in (the) lineup that are like that. It used to be three or four guys that would kind of see a pitch, first pitch, especially first at-bat. Now it’s maybe one or two guys. Guys know they’re not necessarily getting paid to get on base.”

It’s a bit of a renaissance for swinging at the first pitch after it went from 30% in 2001 all the way down to 26% in 2010, coinciding with an increased emphasis on on-base percentage and working the count – the arrival of baseball’s “Moneyball” era.

But, amid advances in velocity and stuff across the major leagues, that first pitch might be the best offensive opportunity since pitchers look to jump ahead in the count. Gausman also mentioned the pitch clock, which was added to the majors before the 2023 season, as possibly forcing batters to be ready more quickly than before.

On the way to his first All-Star Game, Crow-Armstrong had a 1.150 OPS on the first pitch in the first half of the season. That number has dropped to .778 since the break.

“Guys throw so hard and there’s a lot of different shapes that are so hard, and then a lot of different differences in speed,” Crow-Armstrong said. “Pitchers are able to play the game of now that they’ve figured out that I want to attack early, then they combat that with whatever they do.”