Guinea-Bissau’s president seeks second term in close race marked by tensions

BISSAU, Guinea-Bissau (AP) – Guinea-Bissau will vote on Sunday in a presidential election marked by political and ethnic tensions with President Umaro Sissoco Embalo seeking a second term that would make him the nation’s first leader elected to successive terms.

The presidential and parliamentary elections come at a critical time in West Africa where democracy has recently been challenged by disputed elections that analysts say could embolden militaries that have forcefully taken power in several countries.

Guinea-Bissau is one of the world’s poorest countries, with half its population of around 2.2 million people considered poor, according to the World Bank. It has emerged as a hub for drug trafficking between Latin America and Europe, and has been dogged by coups and attempted coups since its independence from Portugal more than 50 years ago.

Embalo, a 53-year-old ex-army general first elected in 2021 and backed by a political coalition of more than 20 groups, is being challenged by 11 other candidates.

Analysts say Sunday’s vote is a close race between Embalo and Fernando Dias da Costa, a little-known 47-year-old backed by former Prime Minister Domingos Simoes Pereira, the runner-up in the 2019 presidential election.

Pereira and the main opposition African Party for the Independence of Guinea and Cape Verde, which he leads, were barred from Sunday’s election after authorities said they failed to submit their application early.

Nearly half the country’s population are registered to vote, and a runoff will be held if no candidate wins more than 50% of votes.

It is seen as one of the most contentious votes in recent history because of the exclusion of the main opposition party.

“The democracy we knew … is no longer the model we are experiencing; we are experiencing a model defined by a single person,” said political analyst Augusto Nansambe.

The vote comes at a critical time for the African country which has endured multiple coups, with an attempt reported in October. Embaló has also faced a legitimacy crisis with the opposition saying his tenure had long expired and that they do not recognize him as president.

The Guinea-Bissau leader won an election in Nov. 2019, and was sworn in as president in Feb. 2020, but the opposition contested the result and the Supreme Court did not recognize his victory until Sept. 4. The opposition says Embalo’s term should have ended on Feb. 27 of this year, but the Supreme Court ruled it should run until Sept. 4. The vote, however was delayed until November.

The legislative election is also being held in unusual circumstances. The opposition-dominated parliament has not convened since December 2023, when it was dissolved by Embalo after an attempted coup. The main opposition party won the legislative election in 2023 and in 2019.

“Aside from questions of who emerges victorious, the ongoing electoral story in Guinea-Bissau will be about how to build and sustain momentum for a stable system of government and institutional guardrails against the abuse of executive power,” the Africa Center for Strategic Studies said in its review.

The election campaign was marked by accusations of hate speech, murder and corruption from the different candidates – a trend that could throw the country into crisis, according to Denise dos Santos Indeque, coordinator of the West Africa Network for Peacebuilding in Guinea-Bissau.

Embalo hinged his campaign on infrastructural development including roads construction and the modernization of the country’s main airport.

Dias, on the other hand, promised to promote stability, freedoms and security. He accused Embalo’s government of “systematic” human rights violations, urging people to “vote for change, for national unity, for reconciliation, for peace, and for an end to the authoritarian regime in Guinea-Bissau.”

In the capital of Bissau, resident Marinho Insoldé expressed optimism the election outcome would improve conditions.

“I hope that these elections will bring peace and tranquility so that there is no more hunger,” said Insoldé.

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Asadu reported from Dakar, Senegal. Associated Press journalist Caitlin Kelly in Dakar contributed.