The Vatican is set to rule on reported apparitions of the Virgin Mary at a Bosnian shrine

VATICAN CITY (AP) - The Vatican is providing its long-awaited assessment on one of the more contested aspects of Roman Catholicism in recent years: the reported "apparitions" of the Virgin Mary in an otherwise unremarkable village in southern Bosnia.

Following nearly 15 years of study, the head of the Vatican's doctrine office, Cardinal Víctor Manuel Fernández, is headlining a news conference Thursday on what the Vatican called "the spiritual experience of Medjugorje."

In 1981, six children and teenagers reported seeing visions of the Madonna on a hill in the village of Medjugorje, located in the wine-making region of southern Bosnia. Some of those original "seers" have claimed the visions have occurred regularly since then, even daily, and that Mary sends them messages.

As a result, Medjugorje has become a major European pilgrimage destination for Christian believers, attracting millions of people over the years. Last year alone, 1.7 million Eucharistic wafers were distributed during Masses there, according to statistics published on the shrine's website, a rough estimate of the numbers of Catholics who visited.

However, unlike at the more well-known and established Catholic sanctuaries in Fatima, Portugal or Lourdes, France, the alleged apparitions at Medjugorje have never been declared authentic by the Vatican.

And over the years, local bishops and Vatican officials have cast doubt on the reliability and motivations of the "seers," because of concerns that economic interests may have been driving their reports of continued visions.

Religious tourism has become an important part of the local economy, with an entire industry catering to pilgrims - hotels, private accommodations, family-run farm businesses, even sports complexes and camping sites — and popping up around Medjugorje. Their growth has contributed to the surrounding municipality’s financial well-being after the Bosnian war in the 1990s devastated the economy.

All of which has led to intense speculation about what, exactly, the Vatican will say Thursday, with journalists parsing the significance of the fact that the Vatican didn't refer to "apparitions" or "visions" in its announcement of the briefing, but merely "the spiritual experience of Medjugorje."

In 2010, Pope Benedict XVI appointed an international commission of theologians and bishops to formally investigate the reported apparitions, tapping his vicar of Rome, Cardinal Camillo Ruini, to head it.

Pope Francis received Ruini's report in 2013 or early 2014. In a sneak-preview, Francis in 2017 said the key of the Vatican investigation was to distinguish between the original reported visions in 1981, and the current claims of continuous apparitions, on which Francis cast doubt.

"I prefer Our Lady to be a mother, our mother, and not a telegraph operator who sends out a message every day at a certain time," he said at the time. "This is not the mother of Jesus and these alleged apparitions have no great value."

But in an airborne press conference returning home from Fatima, Francis added that it was undeniable that people go to Medjugorje and are converted from sin. "This isn't a magic wand. You can't deny this spiritual and pastoral fact," he said.

Francis went on to appoint two personal envoys to oversee the shrine and the needs of the faithful there, and in 2019 explicitly allowed official church pilgrimages, while making clear that such permission didn't amount to a decision about the authenticity of the reported visions.

Whatever is announced Thursday, it is unlikely to be a point-blank declaration of authenticity about the Medjugorje phenomena. That is because Fernández earlier this year announced the Vatican was no longer in the business of declaring alleged visions, weeping statues and stigmata as authentic or not.

He released a new criteria for examining such reports and said the Vatican would not make definitive declarations unless the reported event is clearly a hoax. The aim is to prevent the faithful from being harmed by people trying to make money off of their beliefs, he said.

The new criteria envisages six main outcomes, with the most favorable being that the church issues a noncommittal doctrinal green light, a so-called "nihil obstat." Such a declaration means there is nothing about the event that is contrary to the faith, and therefore Catholics can express devotion to it.

Whatever the outcome, it will surely impact Medjugorje, which lies in the municipality of Citluk, one of the smallest in Bosnia with some 18,000 residents but economically well-off. The municipality has declared that tourism is key for its development, largely thanks to Medjugorje, and hosts various festivals and gatherings each year organized by Christian humanitarian organizations drawn to the place.

Municipal workers say 2024 could be a record year, because Christian pilgrims are tending to stay away from Israel because of the war, and are opting for Medjugorje instead.

"Medjugorje means a lot, all economic sectors lean on Medjugorje," said Ante Kozina, the tourism association chief. "It is a growth generator for the entire municipality."

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Gec contributed from Belgrade, Serbia.