Putin Turns Eastward As Russia Seeks To Rebuild Influence

Russian President Vladimir Putin is looking to strengthen Moscow's position across Asia as he attends a major regional summit in Bishkek, Kyrgyzstan, amid mounting pressure from the West and a series of setbacks for the Kremlin.

The Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) summit comes at a challenging time for Russia, with Western sanctions continuing to weigh on its economy and Ukrainian drone attacks targeting infrastructure and other sites inside the country.

Moscow has also suffered setbacks among some of its international partners. Iran has endured a devastating conflict, while leaders of countries once regarded as close Russian allies, including Syria and Venezuela, have been removed from power with Moscow offering only limited responses.

Putin is expected to conduct bilateral meetings with at least nine foreign leaders during the two-day SCO gathering, which marks the organization's 25th anniversary. Among those scheduled to meet the Russian president is Iranian President Masud Pezeshkian.

On the opening day, Putin held talks with Chinese President Xi Jinping and Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi.

Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said Putin's discussions with Xi concentrated primarily on bilateral relations, with the war in Ukraine receiving only limited attention. Western governments have repeatedly urged Beijing to use its influence with Moscow to help bring the conflict to an end.

According to Russia's Interfax news agency, Modi told Putin that India supports efforts aimed at achieving peace in Ukraine, although few details were released about their discussion.

Putin is also expected to meet leaders from outside the SCO, including Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan and Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinian.

The meeting with Pashinian could prove particularly sensitive as Armenia has increasingly sought closer relations with Western countries, raising concerns in Moscow about the future of its longstanding relationship with Yerevan.

Seeking A United Front

Putin and Xi have frequently used SCO meetings to demonstrate cooperation and promote an alternative to Western influence in Central Asia and beyond.

Xi arrived in Bishkek on August 30 and met Kyrgyz President Sadyr Japarov ahead of the summit.

The SCO includes Russia, China, India, Iran, Pakistan, Belarus, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Uzbekistan and Tajikistan. Despite their membership in the same organization, the countries do not share identical political interests, with longstanding tensions between nuclear-armed India and Pakistan highlighting the group's internal divisions.

The organization originated as the Shanghai Five in 1996 before expanding into the broader SCO in 2001.

Russia and Iran are both subject to extensive Western sanctions. Moscow has faced sweeping restrictions since launching its full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, while Tehran has been targeted over a range of issues, including its regional activities and disputed nuclear ambitions.

Iran has also faced criticism over its military cooperation with Russia. Ukraine and Western governments have accused Tehran of supplying Shahed drones that Russia has used against Ukrainian targets.

At the same time, US officials have said Russia has provided Iran with intelligence and targeting information relating to American forces and military assets in the Middle East.

Iran And The Middle East On Agenda

The Middle East crisis is expected to be a central issue when Putin meets Pezeshkian.

Kremlin foreign-policy aide Yury Ushakov described the Middle East situation as one of the key topics for discussion, pointing to the heightened tensions surrounding Iran.

Economic cooperation is also expected to feature prominently.

Among the issues is a $25 billion agreement between Iran and Russia's state-owned nuclear company Rosatom to construct four nuclear power plants in Iran.

Analyst Naser al-Tamimi said the SCO could provide Iran with some political and economic support as Tehran faces increasing international isolation.

Greater use of currencies such as the Chinese yuan and Russian ruble could help Iran reduce some of its reliance on Western financial systems, he argued.

However, the organization has significant limitations. The SCO does not have a comprehensive alternative financial system capable of insulating Iran from US sanctions, nor can it force major economies such as China and India to accept the economic consequences of deeper commercial ties with Tehran.

Tensions With Armenia

Putin's planned meeting with Pashinian could be another difficult diplomatic encounter.

Armenia has historically been one of Russia's closest partners in the Caucasus, but relations have deteriorated as Yerevan has pursued stronger links with Europe and the West.

Tensions increased after Armenian authorities arrested former President Robert Kocharian on August 25 in connection with corruption-related allegations. Kocharian, who served as president from 1998 to 2008, now leads the Armenia Alliance, a major opposition grouping viewed as broadly pro-Moscow.

The Kremlin has also reacted angrily to Armenia's stated ambition to eventually join the European Union.

Ushakov said Moscow would make clear that Armenia could not seek EU membership while continuing to benefit substantially from its participation in the Russia-led Eurasian Economic Union, which also includes Belarus, Kazakhstan and Kyrgyzstan.

The Bishkek summit will therefore give Putin an opportunity not only to reinforce ties with China, India and Iran, but also to demonstrate that Russia retains diplomatic influence despite its confrontation with the West.

After the SCO summit, Putin is scheduled to travel to Vladivostok for the Eastern Economic Forum from September 1 to 4.

There, he is expected to meet additional foreign leaders, including Indonesia's president and Mongolia's prime minister, as Moscow continues its effort to deepen economic and political relationships across Asia.