Newspoll has right‑wing parties rebounding from a slump three weeks ago

Three weeks ago, the Newspoll taken in the week after Pauline Hanson's June 17 National Press Club address had the combined vote for One Nation and the Coalition down three points and the combined vote for Labor and the Greens up five points.

This Newspoll virtually reverses the movement three weeks ago, with the combined right vote up three points to 49% and the combined left vote down four points to 42%.

Three of the four other polls published in the last week validate Newspoll, with only the YouGov poll below contradicting it (right vote down one point to 46% in YouGov).

While there was a slump in the right vote after Hanson's address, this slump was short-lived, and the right vote has rebounded quickly to where it was before this address.

Meanwhile, Andy Burnham will replace Keir Starmer as UK prime minister today, after he was elected Labour leader unopposed.

Newspoll

A national Newspoll, conducted July 13-16 from a sample of 1,238, gave Labor 30% of the primary vote (down three since the previous Newspoll, three weeks ago), One Nation 30% (up one), the Coalition 19% (up two), the Greens 12% (down one) and all Others 9% (up one).

No two-party estimate was provided, but there would be clear movement to One Nation against Labor given the swings on primary votes.

Anthony Albanese's net approval dropped one point to -18, with 57% dissatisfied and 39% satisfied. This continues his run of net approvals at or below -15 in Newspolls since late February. The graph below shows Albanese's net approval since he became PM, with a smoothed line fitted.

Angus Taylor's net approval was down one point to -21, a new low for him (51% dissatisfied, 30% satisfied). Hanson's net approval improved three points to net zero (47% both satisfied and dissatisfied).

Albanese led Taylor as better PM by 44-36 (47-36 previosly). In a forced three-way choice, Albanese had 46% (down three), Hanson 32% (up one) and Taylor 22% (up two). Albanese led Hanson by an unchanged 57-43 after Taylor's supporters' preferences.

YouGov poll

A national YouGov poll for Sky News, conducted July 7-14 from a sample of 1,468, gave Labor 28% of the primary vote (down one since the late June YouGov poll), One Nation 26% (down four), the Coalition 20% (up three), the Greens 12% (down one), independents 6% (steady) and others 6% (up one).

For the first time, a poll has asked for support for Community Strong Australia, the new teal party, finding it at just 2%.

By respondent preferences, Labor led One Nation by 56-44, a two-point gain for Labor. Labor led the Coalition by 53-47, a one-point gain for the Coalition.

Albanese's net approval improved three points to -18 (56% dissatisfied, 38% satisfied), continuing a recovery from a low of -26 in late May. After the controversy regarding Albanese's remarks about Kylie Minogue, his net approval was up nine points with men to -16, but down three points with women to -19.

Taylor's net approval was down five points to -16 (49% dissatisfied, 33% satisfied), dropping to a new low. Albanese led Taylor as better PM by 45-34 (44-35 previously). He led Hanson by 54-35 (49-40 previously).

Compared with 12 months ago, 51% thought Australia was a weaker and poorer country now, 15% said we are a stronger and more prosperous country and 34% said Australia has not changed.

Further questions from Resolve polls

I previously covered the early July federal Resolve poll for Nine newspapers. In further questions, support for the capital gains tax and negative gearing changes has increased since June. By 35-24, respondents supported the capital gains changes (31-31 previously). By 37-23, they supported the negative gearing changes (33-26 previously).

By 61-9, respondents supported bringing house prices down (54-11 in June). But when respondents were asked to specify a range of house price change they would like, 15% wanted house prices to keep rising, 23% stay the same, 6% drop under 2%, 9% drop 2-4%, 8% a 5-9% drop, 6% a 10-19% drop and 14% a drop of 20% or more.

In a further question from the Victorian Resolve poll for The Age, by 71-7 respondents supported a royal commission into alleged corruption in the construction industry (70-6 in April).

Andy Burnham to be UK PM

Andy Burnham was elected unopposed to replace Keir Starmer as UK Labour leader and PM. He will become PM today. Two UK byelections will soon be held: a byelection on July 30 to replace Burnham as mayor of Greater Manchester, and a byelection on August 13 that was caused by Reform leader Nigel Farage's resignation from Clacton.

Farage will recontest Clacton, with his main opponent likely to be Count Binface. I wrote about this for The Poll Bludger last Thursday, and also covered polls for the US midterm elections in early November.

TheConversation.com

Author: Adrian Beaumont - Election Analyst (Psephologist) at The Conversation; and Honorary Associate, School of Mathematics and Statistics, The University of Melbourne

https://theconversation.com/newspoll-has-right-wing-parties-rebounding-from-a-slump-three-weeks-ago-287493