AfD Victory Raises New Questions Over Germany's Political Future

Germany's far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) has scored a historic victory in Saxony-Anhalt, winning 44 percent of the vote and finishing well ahead of Chancellor Friedrich Merz's centre-right Christian Democrats (CDU).

The result marks the first time since World War II that a far-right party has come within striking distance of forming a government at state level in Germany.

AfD state leader Ulrich Siegmund described the result as "history" and called on other political parties to cooperate in delivering what he described as fundamental political change.

However, forming a government will be difficult. The AfD is classified as a far-right extremist organisation by Germany's domestic intelligence service, while mainstream parties continue to uphold a political "firewall" against cooperation with the party.

The AfD is projected to win 39 of the 83 seats in the Saxony-Anhalt parliament, three short of the 42 required for an outright majority.

The party has never been part of a governing coalition in any of Germany's 16 states or at federal level.

A dramatic rise

The AfD more than doubled its support in Saxony-Anhalt, rising from 21 percent at the previous election to 44 percent.

The CDU suffered the opposite fate, falling from 37 percent to just 17 percent - its worst result in the state.

The result follows a series of strong performances by the AfD. At last year's federal election, it won 21 percent and became the largest opposition force in the Bundestag.

The party also made significant gains in state elections in Baden-Württemberg and Rhineland-Palatinate earlier this year, while winning its first state election in Thuringia in 2024.

The AfD has gained particular support in former East Germany, where voters have expressed frustration over economic stagnation, unemployment, immigration and security.

National ambitions

The Saxony-Anhalt result has intensified speculation about the AfD's prospects at the 2029 federal election.

Current polling places the party at about 28 percent nationally, potentially making it Germany's largest political force.

But winning the most votes would not automatically put the AfD in government. Other major parties have so far refused to form coalitions with it, meaning the party could struggle to secure a governing majority even if it finishes first.

The AfD has also faced a series of controversies since its formation in 2013, including allegations involving foreign influence, extremist networks, nepotism and plans for mass deportations of people with migrant backgrounds.

The party was expelled from the European Parliament's former Identity and Democracy group in 2024 after controversial remarks by senior figure Maximilian Krah about the Nazi SS.

Despite the controversies, the AfD's continued electoral growth is putting increasing pressure on Germany's established parties.

The Saxony-Anhalt result has prompted calls for political change, with Green Party politician Cem Özdemir saying the victory showed that Germany's mainstream political forces could no longer continue with "nothing" changing.

For the AfD, however, the biggest challenge remains turning electoral success into political power.