450,000 Could Die From Powerful El Nino

More than 450,000 people could die from additional heat exposure over the next six months as an unusually powerful El Nino weather event intensifies global temperatures, according to a new research report.

The projection covers the period through February 2027 and compares the number of heat-related deaths expected during the event with estimates for a typical year.

Researchers estimate global land temperatures could rise by about 1.2 degrees Celsius above expected levels, while the number of extremely hot days could be 44 percent higher than in an average year.

The effects are expected to be particularly severe in developing countries, with parts of Africa facing some of the largest increases in heat-related mortality.

The research projects about 66,800 additional deaths across Africa's Sahel region. Nigeria is expected to record the highest projected additional death toll of any individual country, at about 31,400.

Indonesia is projected to record approximately 19,300 additional deaths, followed by Sudan with 17,600.

Several countries in Southeast Asia are also expected to experience significant impacts. The Philippines, Vietnam, Thailand and Cambodia are collectively projected to record about 19,400 additional heat-related deaths.

India is projected to see approximately 15,800 additional deaths, while Brazil could record about 13,300.

El Nino began developing in June and is expected to rank among the strongest such events on record. The naturally occurring climate pattern typically develops every few years and can influence weather conditions across large parts of the world.

Scientists have increasingly warned that climate change may amplify the effects of El Nino by raising baseline global temperatures, potentially making extreme heat events more dangerous.

In early September, the United Nations' weather agency said there was a 100 percent probability that El Nino would continue through February 2027.

Researchers, however, warned that the consequences of the current event could extend beyond the official duration of the weather pattern, with elevated risks potentially continuing into the middle of 2027.

The projected death toll remains an estimate and depends on the severity and geographic distribution of extreme heat during the coming months. Actual mortality could differ from current modelling if weather conditions change.